An Obama Salute?

The Obamagruss? U.S. News reports that the Obama people have their own salute, or so it appears. Admittedly this is not the work of the campaign, per se, but of a "creative agency" called "The Loyalty, Inc." They want to have 75,000 people at his nomination screaming their allegiance and making the Obama salute, which symbolizes "new hope" and "hands clasped in acceptance of responsibility for our future."

First there was a seal, then they took the big flag off the airplane, to replace it with the Obama O, now there's a salute? What's next, uniforms (with Obama O armbands) and a song? I guess nobody's used the Horst-Wessel-Lied in awhile, although I think Billy Bragg's version of the Internationale is more their speed.

I can't honestly determine if these people are just historical illiterates with no knowledge of totalitarian movements and their use of salutes, symbols, songs and flags; or if, on the contrary, these people really do know what they're doing, and are after more than an election. I repeat my question of several days ago. What is Obama really running for?

(Hat tip: American Power).

Russia and Georgia

Russia has intervened directly in favor of secessionist rebels in the Georgian region of South Ossetia (center of map). The Russians have always helped and supported the secessionists, in both South Ossetia and in Abkhazia (top left map). In 1995, both regions (with Moscow's connivance) achieved de facto if not de jure independence from Georgia, and Russian "peacekeepers" have been in the area since at least that time.

Georgia has never given up trying to reintegrate both regions, and Georgian military forces earlier this week occupied the secessionist capital at Tskhinvali (see map), and clamed the city had been "freed." The Georgian President, Mr. Mikheil Saakashvili, says that Russian Ground Forces then crossed the border. The Georgians claim the force includes armor (the Reuters story says "150 tanks" plus APC's and other vehicles), and that Georigan military airfields around their capital Tbilisi (center right on the map) have been bombed. Russian news agencies claim that a Russian armored column has moved over the border. The Georgians claim to have shot down two Russian aircraft.

Apparently shelling from heavy guns is on-going near Tskhinvali. Owners of the guns unknown.

Unlike the United States, the Russians are very careful about giving out too much order-of-battle information, so any information has to be taken with a box or two of salt. Still, here is what is publicly available about Russian Ground Forces in the Caucasus/Transcaucasus region.

Georgia borders the Russian North Caucasus Military District. This military district probably has most of the combat-capable ground units in the Russian Ground Forces, simply because it is tasked with ongoing Russian operations in Russia's own breakaway Chechnya region. Supposedly, it has a number of mountain-warfare capable units.

Just across the Georgia border, in North Ossetia, is the Russian Ground Forces 58th Army (wich is subordinate to the North Caucasus MD, and is its principal Ground Forces unit. The principal maneuver unit in this army is the 19th Motor Rifle Division, which has three Motor-Rifle [infantry] regiments, a separate tank regiment [90-100 tanks, all up] and a self-propelled artillery regiment (big guns on tracked vehicles).

Additionally, 58th Army has at least three subordinate separate motor rifle brigades or regiments (maneuver elements about a third a size of the 19th MRD at full strength). However, the Russian Ground forces are not the Soviet Ground Forces, and they do not possess the wealth of personal and material of similar units in Soviet times. Most units are cadres -- that is, greatly below their full notional strength, and are filled-out with additional troops and equipment when needed.

Although there are at least two other MRD's in the North Caucasus MD, in addition to substantial Interior Ministry paramilitary units, much of what's there (including 58th Army) have commitments in Chechnya. In all probability, if a major intervention in Georgia is seriously contemplated, and continues for any length of time, other forces will be required.

Georgia's land forces are about 20,000 strong, comprising four infantry brigades and supporting units. Two additional brigades are supposed to be raised by 2010. The Georgia Land Forces have enjoyed good relations with the US military (including joint exercises and training) and sent forces to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom. (Wretchard at Belmont Club has a good discussion of US/Georgia military relations, and this new crisis, here). Georgia can probably defend itself against anything short of a full-scale invasion, simply because of geography, but if the Russians are determined, Georgia is in trouble.

Georgia is not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but has a "partnership for peace" with NATO, whatever that might mean.

What appears to have happened today is that Georgia decided that it would be able to bring separatist South Ossetia back under its control without Russian objection. Georgia's calculation appears to have been erroneous. Probably, the Russians implemented standing plans for their own military response in the event Georgia tried this.

The decision to execute the plan would go all the way to Moscow, to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Medvedev and Putin appear to think they have a green light to move troops openly into a sovereign state that has relations with NATO; or that NATO (meaning the US) is too busy elsewhere to really object, much. Why the Russians might think that should cause some other people to think a little bit. . .

Alliance of Convenience

Lenin: The Tsar should have had your secret police. My party will study your methods.

German Consul: They [the reports] fail to mention your sense of humor.

Lenin: It gets even funnier: I want to get to Petersburg.You want to get to Paris.

German Consul: It's outrageous! We are here in Zurich, and if I understand you, you want the German government, which is at war with Russia, to take you across Germany to Sweden, because you can get to Russia from there?

Lenin: I'm offering to stop the war.

German Consul: (scoffing) Oh, I didn't know you had such authority.

Lenin: If there were a Bolshevik government in Russia, we'd immediately make peace with Germany. Then how many divisions could you send to the western front?

German Consul: And now you're asking me for classified information. You know my government has locked up more Bolsheviks than anyone else? How can you expect us, to help you make a revolution? You have no sense of proportion!

Lenin: All I'm interested in is power in Russia, and it's lying there on the streets waiting to be picked up. . .

German Consul: I see your jokes are very subtle. A Marxist wants to use the Kaiser. And perhaps the Kaiser can use a Marxist.

Curd Jürgens as "The German Consul" and Michael Bryant as "Lenin" in Nicholas and Alexandra (1971) (Directed by Franklin J. Schaffner; Screenplay by James Goldman and Edward Bond, from a book by Robert K. Massie)

Karen Tumulty, writing in Time, asks hopefully, fearfully, "Have the Clintons gotten over it?"

Oh, one surely hopes not.

The White House awaits you in four years, Senator Clinton, but the road to glory cannot be travelled with St. Barack upon it. If Obama wins, you're history, writing your has-been memoirs about what might-have-been and blaming Bill that it did not come out differently. But you knew that.

All kinds of rumors are circulating that you want your delegates "heard" at the convention. Maybe that you even want a floor vote on the nomination? I doubt you're going to do that, unless you think it certain that St. Barack is a gone gosling. He's lost some tail-feathers, but he's not weakened enough for you to expose yourself by forcing a vote, not yet. But some chaos is not all bad.

Perhaps all the noise is the sound of you making one last effort to gain the number two spot? Maybe. But I think you agree with me and John Nance Garner that on the terms you could get it, the position is "not worth a bucket of warm piss." Still, offering you the post would be a counsel of desperation for Obama: it would be too easy for you to connive at his defeat from within. If Obama is fool enough to give it to you, and he still wins, he'll watch his back, lock you up in the Naval Observatory, trot you out for the odd funeral, and make it his business to ensure your political future after him is oblivion. No matter how you look at it, his win is your loss.

I think you're probably smart enough to push for the position, enough to be noticed, and to demonstrate the viability of your power base; all the while being enough of a bother to ensure that you don't receive an offer, and to encourage a rookie's tendency to do something stupid to offend your supporters. For his part, Obama must consider you, but not give you the post, in such a manner that he doesn't appear a churl rejecting you. Hard to bring off. You win either way: if he loses it's not (obviously) your doing. If he wins, you still have supporters certain you were short-changed, which, combined with your seat in the Senate, is something of a base.

Ms. Tumulty reports that you're "skeptical" that St. Barack can win in the fall. Your skepticism is well-founded, but it would be even more well-founded, and much in your interest, if you were to give the New Messiah, and history, a little bit of an unobtrusive shove.

So, you don't like Republicans and conservatives? Well, the distaste is mutual of course, but what of it? Tomorrow we can have our quarrel, and we will see whose political head winds up over the barn door. But today, our interests, and those of the country, happily coincide, and on that basis we can surely understand each other. How about it? Looks like a win-win, from here, for the moment. If the Marxists can use the Kaiser, maybe the Kaiser can use a Marxist?

Iran and Military Options

There is a flurry of new reports this week that Israel is considering its military options against Iran and its nuclear program. Links to some reports and a good general discussion are set out by Spook at In from the Cold.

Count me a skeptic about the Israelis pursuing a military option. The ranges are long, the targets too dispersed and probably hardened. Absent the use of nuclear weapons (unthinkable without an actual Iranian attack on Israel) I'm not sure the Israelis have the weight to do enough damage to Iran or its program (much less killing the scientists and the institutions that give the Persians the capability) to justify the political problems created by such an action.

I think similar considerations (politically at least) would hobble a US effort.

The Iranians have essentially won this hand. If Iran wants nuclear devices, there is not a usable military option available to stop them at the moment. The only way they can lose at this point is by being over-truculent and forcing the outside world's hand. However, the regime is sailing very close to the wind, and there is a strong possibility that the Mullahs and "Mad Jad" Ahmadinejad could bluster themselves into a real war by mistake.

The mullahs' weakness is that they need political confrontation with America and the west (at least on this issue) for much the same reasons that Chavez in Venezuela does. The mullahs have made such a hopeless mess, economically, spiritually and politically, of Iran that a foreign threat is imperative to keep the regime out of serious trouble. For the mullahs (and us) the problem is that the consequences of the confrontation ever becoming violent cannot adequately be predicted: a few raids would no doubt unite the public behind the regime; but if the world becomes afraid enough, a real war could destroy both them and their country.

The desire for nuclear power and nuclear weapons unites both the regime and its enemies. Halting Iranian nuclear programs politically is simply unlikely to occur. The Iranian nuclear program is dangerous not for itself, but because the mullah regime is dangerous, and wants to overturn the political order of the Gulf region, and beyond.

Change the issue a little. The Iranian nuclear program is the wrong target. The Iranian regime, which is both unpopular and criminal -- and more vulnerable politically than the nuclear program -- is the right one.

Obama Wants to Get Rid of Oil

Senator Obama, speaking to a crowd in Youngstown, Ohio, says that “for the sake of our economy, our security and the future of our planet, we must end the age of oil in our time.”

“The future of our planet”?

“End the age of oil”?

What is Senator Obama really running for ? The President of the United States is not the steward of the future of our planet, but a public official entrusted with the state business of the United States of America, and with its prosperity, power, safety and aggrandizement. Obama’s concern seems less with the United States -- because the United States holds only a part of his loyalty. After all, in Berlin, the Senator told a German crowd that he was a “proud citizen of the United States and a fellow citizen of the world.” I always thought that American Presidents were for the United States, only, first, last and always.

The President of the United States does not have the power to “end the age of oil.” He is not a scientist, or a miracle-worker or a conjurer. The “age of oil” will be ended when economic, commercial and physical realities require it to be ended, and not before.

Obama’s demand that the “age of oil” end seems to have less to do with the high energy and gasoline prices that are hurting the economy generally, and the pocketbooks of voters in particular. Yesterday he told us the US could produce enough “renewable energy” within ten years to replace all US imports of Middle Eastern oil. Renewable is what Obama’s concerned about. Everything we know about Obama, and everything he says tells us that he cares nothing about Americans enjoying access to cheap, plentiful energy, and everything about our carbon emissions and how much we cut back.

Maybe we can produce enough “renewable energy” to replace Middle Eastern oil imports, but, economically this is hardly a relevant question. It does not matter, economically at least, that the energy is “renewable.” Economically speaking, all that matters is that energy sources be commercially useful and reasonably secure. As long as there are cheaper sources of oil, coal, nuclear or other non-renewable resources around, the money (like water seeking its own level) will gravitate and flow to these sources , and disdain Obama’s precious “renewable” energy.

Of course, we could reach his goal of replacing oil with renewable sources by the government’s forcing it to happen. Of course, it might well economically break us. Planned economies do not historically work out too well (see Soviet Union, fall of). Meanwhile, what will the rest of the world be doing? Oh, Obama's fellow world citizens in Europe will be writing their scholarly papers all the while still-complaining about the cowboy Americans. But I guarantee you the Chinese and Indians aren't going to be worrying about carbon footprints and emissions mandates.

The most disturbing element to the Obama phenomenon right along has been the religious tone of his pronouncements; the millenarian thrust of his huge aspirations. Beware Utopians with plans. Obama does not have the power to “end the age of oil” or secure “the future of our planet.” But as President he would certainly have the power and the means to compel Americans to ignore what’s in our financial and commercial interests, and to use the state’s power to dragoon us all into his Global Warming religion’s crusade to save the planet and build the New Jerusalem to his specifications. Obama the post-nationalist, transnational citizen of the world's going to make you do it -- like it or not. Do you doubt it?

Edouard

Tropical Storm Edouard is supposed to be paying a visit to Cuidad El Jefe this morning. So far, except for a little rain, it's been a bust, Edouard has gotten us to clean up our yards and stay off the roads, but he's stiffed us on the drinks. We sure need the rain, although he can keep the hot air.

(2:24 p.m. local). It appears that folks to the north of El Jefe's palace have received a bit more rain and some wind. A nice steady rain has fallen here through the day.

Obama Throws Planet Pelosi Under the Bus

Well, St. Barack has flip-flopped on offshore drilling. Now he says he's for it, saying that he could support it as long as it's part of a "comprehensive energy policy" and was a "careful well thought-out drilling strategy that was carefully circumscribed to avoid significant environmental damage."

If he's serious, that's plain good sense, and shows that Obama has a nodding acquaintance with reality when it's politically imperative for him to do so.

Wonder how Nancy "Save the Planet" Pelosi's going to feel about St. Barack throwing her under the bus? Getting awful crowded under there.

Why Is the Floor Moving ?

Friend T had SWMBO and I over for drinks and snacks whilst the Heir and T's daughter went swimming. We had a wonderful time, but I don't think I will feel the need to even look in the direction of red wine anytime soon.

Unblocked

Blogger says they had a spambot bug, which evidently resulted in this and other blogs being locked by Blogger's automated spambots yesterday. Evidently El Jefe's paranoia was unjustified, and those responsible will be sent for re-education at once.

He's Ordered His Horse...

And the Oval Office furniture. . .

St. Barack and the Titanic

Over at American Power blog, Professor Douglas calls attention to send-ups of St. Barack's "victory tour" in the Washington Post and in USA Today. The Sainted One's "presumptuous arrogance" Professor Douglas correctly notes, could lead to a stunning loss. Well, from the Professor's pen to God's pad, let's hope. In this same vein, commenter (and blogger) "Educated Shoprat" notes that: "They said that 'God Himself couldn't sink the Titanic' but down she went. Hubris is the enemy of the great, near-great, and self-deluded."

Maybe, but I dunno. . .

If St. Barack had been on Titanic, it would have been a totally different tale. First, St. Barack would have equalized the wealth of first class and steerage, thus assuring all that the voyage across the icy cold North Atlantic was total Nirvana for the poor immigrants seeking a better life in the New World (room for lots and lots more with St. Barack on board); and a wonderful happy crossing for even the ship's rats.

Then, the Great One would have used his tough presidential diplomacy to influence Captain Smith to ignore the evil demands of J. Bruce Ismay (symbol of the corporate greed fostered by Republicans) to go faster than a fuel-efficient 55 mph. The Man of Hope would have further prevailed on Captain Smith to reverse the failed lookout policies of the Bush administration, and to pay his lookouts a fair Union wage rather than outsourcing their work to China.

Once the ship hit the iceberg, St. Barack would have immediately implemented allocation of lifeboat space based on the best affirmative action principles. He would have convened earnest and determined academic study groups seeking input from all parts of the community to prepare a thesis on the best, fairest, most PC way to allocate lifeboat space, to ensure that the contributions of the poor, passengers of color, the differently-abled, and those of diverse sexual preferences were taken into account. (The target date for completion of the study would be mid-1913).

In the meantime, St. Barack's friend, Reverend Wright, could sermonize the passengers on the sins of America, leading them in rousing renditions of Nearer My God to Thee, St. Barack and the Internationale. Meanwhile, down in steerage, St. Barack's other pal, Bill Ayers, would be busily forming SDS ("Steerage for a Democratic Society") and planning the revolution against the first class passengers. Michelle's there too, inspiring the crew manning the pumps to truly Stakhanovite efforts: "Barack . . .will require you to work. . . come out of your isolation, that you move out of your comfort zones. That you push yourselves to be better. And that you engage. Barack will never allow you to go back to your lives as usual, uninvolved, uninformed."

With St. Barack aboard, the Titanic passengers have really Got Hope. On the boat deck, St. Barack gives up waiting on the blue-ribbon academic panel to come up with a lifeboat-allocation plan, reverse the rotation of the world, stop the Iranian nukes, and make the crops grow. He puts his "community organizer" persona into overdrive, leading the crew in rhythmic chants of "Yes We Can ! Yes We Can !" Inspired, the crew swings into action, patches the hole in Titanic and (powered by hot air from MoveOn.org) steams that puppy right into New York, running over Hillary Clinton as the ship makes port.

St. Barack saves the ship, and gets Kate Winslet (plus the "Heart of the Ocean" for good measure). Titanic, refitted, is renamed St Barack's Hope and given a new figurehead, that says "Vero possumus" and looks suspiciously like a presidential seal. A grateful world yawns, and gives St. Barack the keys to the White House, the Vatican and the Executive Washroom. Savior Barack is packed right off on a European tour, where Katie Couric and the world media swoon and go ga-ga as the Sainted One makes World Peace Surpassing All Understanding, for All Time to Come. . .

Exeunt Olmert

Ehud Olmert is stepping down as Israeli Prime Minister, as soon as his Kadina Party picks a new leader. Not before time: he made a hash of the Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006. Mr. Olmert's government dithered over its response to Hezbollah's rocket and prisoner-grab challenge; squandered an opportunity to crush Hezbollah with Israeli ground troops: opting to try to do the job on the cheap with air power and long range guns. The Olmert government turned to its ground option much too late, with much too little, when diplomatic time had expired.

Israel got all the bad press attendant on using any of its military options and suffered a major loss of military and diplomatic prestige. The war revealed major problems with the Israeli military system, but Israel was certainly strong enough to win in the field. That she did not was largely the fault of the national leadership -- in particular Mr. Olmert.

No doubt some caretaker Prime Minister will follow, but whenever the Israelis have elections. . . keep an eye on Benjamin Netanyahu. If he were a stock, he'd be a good buy about now.

Our Unserious Government

Despite staggeringly high oil prices, and the fact that we import nearly 70 percent of our oil from less than stable parts of the world, there is still no move by Congress to approve opening more of the continental shelf to oil drilling. Meanwhile, Fiscal Year 2009's US government budget deficit is going to break records at $482 billion dollars. That's not counting costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Don't worry, you, your kids, grandkids and their grandchildren's children will be paying.

Strategic thinking in Washington is on holiday. With the cancellation of most of the Zumwalt-class destroyer project (DDG-1000), the Navy's shipbuilding program is in disarray. Perhaps some disarray is justified: the Navy never seemed to know exactly what it wanted in these 14,000-ton "destroyers" that were as big as cruisers and as expensive as battleships. While this is going on, Congress is funding VIP "comfort pallets" in USAF aircraft so that flag officers and (more importantly) Congress-persons can travel around the world the cushy way. Hey, they need to be able to travel, since President-Faith Healer Obama, now on his victory tour, is a citizen of the world.

Oh, and there's a war on.

But don't worry, citizens. True, we're broke; our kids are going to be strapped to the eyes; regular unleaded is about $4.00 a gallon; and the vegetables, bread and milk you can buy will just about fit in the same space in your wallet formerly occupied by the worthless dollars you bought them with.

Still, there are glad tidings -- your Congress is on the case: yesterday the House of Representatives apologized for slavery (dead 140 years) and Jim Crow. Meanwhile, the House Judiciary Committee, its 20 Democrats anyway (voting along party lines of course) wants to cite Karl Rove for contempt of Congress.

Dolts. Fools. Useless nincompoops. Incompetents. (Add expletives here). Contempt of Congress is a badge of honor.

The Sainted One Goes Forth

A reading from the Book of Obama, the Light-Bringer to the world. . .

What if Obama Loses?

Wretchard, over at Belmont Club, has a very interesting piece today concerning, inter alia, the apprehensions of some of the brighter denizens of Big Media about the intentions of the political monster they have built. But Wretchard's most arresting thought on our coming Leader is how he is:

. . .no longer just running for President but striding forward to claim his destiny. Once the expectation of an Obama victory exceeds a certain point an actual electoral defeat would cause psychological damage to the trust mechanisms of [the] political system, like a long announced celebration party or holiday that unaccountably never happens. He’s a runaway. .

Now there's an interesting question. As I said the other day, it's like the media has held its election, and Obama has already won. In all but name, he is the President-Elect. We're just waiting till he takes office.

What if, in spite of all expectations, that turns out not to be true ? What if Destiny is denied; the hopes and expectations of right-thinging people all over the world dashed and Leader St. Barack actually loses come November? The odds of that look vanishingly small, at least at first blush. . .but the polls have this race looking tighter than the tone of the media coverage says it should.

So what if it happens? What if Obama is overexposed, and ordinary people, considering Obama, have the temerity, the pure gall to ignore the propaganda and what they're being told the world wants and decide that No. He. Can't? What if the bubble bursts?

Can the political system survive the anger of so many right-thinking people denied their Leader; their new Kennedy; their Messiah? Would the New Class that has taken over the Democratic Party and that constitutes the media and information elites that now rule us, take the defiance, the sacrilege and impudence of flyover country lying down?

I grant you that it's unlikely to happen. . .but it would be such fun if it did.

Iraq Today If Obama Had Gotten His Way

Comment is simply superfluous. . .I agree completely. (Hat tip: Confederate Yankee).

Didn't You Hear? Obama's Already President

Drudge reports today that the New York Times has rejected John McCain's proposed op-ed column -- just a week after it gave space on the op-ed page, gratis, to St. Barack of Obama. According to the Drudge piece, the Times op-ed editor says McCain's offering is deficient because it des not "mirror" Barack the Leader's column.

Hmmm, too bad we can't get all the Lefties to hold their breath waiting for Nancy Pelosi to denounce the one-sidedness of the Times editorial page the way she does that of talk radio. . .

Meanwhile, the Sainted Leader's trip abroad has occasioned what the Financial Times (and probably everybody else) calls a "media frenzy" in contrast to the "subdued coverage" of Senator McCain's campaign. We are further informed this morning that the Iraqi government and Obama agree on when US troops should leave Iraq. And as if that were not enough, Obama has said on CBS's Face the Nation (as reported in Dan Balz's Washington Post campaign blog): "The objective of this trip was to have substantive discussions with people like [Afghan] President Karzai or [Iraqi] Prime Minister Maliki or [French] President Sarkozy or others who I expect to be dealing with over the next eight to 10 years." (italics in original)

Gee, last I heard, the 22nd Amendment said you could be President for eight years, tops. I'm sure St. Barack will fix this in his first term.

Then again, maybe he won't. Why would he have to? The media's so in the tank for this guy, why are we even bothering with an election? As far as the press and right-thinking people are concerned, St. Barack is already the President-Elect, and we're all just sitting around marking time till he takes the throne next January. We don't need to have an election -- the media, which has given up reporting the news and gone full time into making it, is having the election for us, and if we don't vote the right way come November, the chattering classes will just up and elect themselves a new people.

Moreover, as far as these people are concerned, he can be President for Life if he wants. I'm not so sure I'd bet against him dealing with Sarkozy and company ten years off.

Real Men Vote for McCain

I LOVE IT ! Here's why Real Men Vote for McCain. . .

Wake Up Jefe (Gunkan March)

Not a lot of posting this week: real life has tended to interfere some, but I should have some time this weekend, and hope to catch up.

In the meantime, it's a warm afternoon here, and I'm wishing a nap was possible. If you need some waking up, give the Imperial Japan...oops, I mean the Japanese Ground Self Defense Force Eastern Army Band playing the Gunkan (Warship) March a listen (and, by the way, if you know where El Jefe can find the Gunkan March on CD, he'd love to know) . . .

Loons Bankrupting the Asylum

With the decision to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Government is now effectively bailer-outer to the whole world; and, never mind the consequences to the dollar, the Government's balance sheets and the fact the Government, with scarcely any debate, is putting your grandkids in hock miles higher than their eyeballs (they were already in to their eyeballs). If you were looking for a way to guarantee $8.00 a gallon gas, this was it.

Clearly, the lesson here is that, if you're big enough, you can make the taxpayers pay for anything, forever.

But forget all that -- forget that the currency is being debauched and debased, and the country being bankrupted. Worry, instead, about a stupid magazine cover.