Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus Prediction

Clear skies, with gusty winds in Iowa tonight, predicted low of 21 degrees at Des Moines.

Scott Elliott, the “Blogging Caesar” (who is uncommonly prescient with election predictions) thinks that Huckabee handily wins the Republican Iowa Caucus, with Romney trailing a distant second. The real surprise is third place – Fred Thompson, with McCain just behind him in fourth.

As for the Democrats, he puts St. Barack of Obama in first, well ahead of Edwards in second, with Mrs. Clinton a distant third.

The Iowa Caucus system is very bizarre to us outlanders. Blogging Caesar is pretty smart, but I’m gonna bet that clear but cold weather helps organization trump intensity, and pick Edwards as the surprise Demo winner, just squeaking by Obama, with Hillary in deeeeep trouble in third place.

I agree with Blogging Caesar’s Republican line-up, except I think/hope that McCain edges Thompson for third place.
If I'm wrong, so what ? Nobody else knows either.

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