Presidential advisor and election guru Karl Rove spoke to the American Enterprise Institute today, and, AP reports, blamed the Second Gulf War in Iraq for dragging down President Bush's poll numbers, saying that ". . . the war looms over everything."
Mr. Rove is correct, at least in part. He promises that the President will offer a "comprehensive solution" to immigration problems in his address to the Nation tonight.
John Derbyshire at National Review Online thinks the President's immigration proposals won't amount to much. Count El Jefe as somewhat of a skeptic of the National Guard to the Border plan, without more, also. We will soon know.
Mr. Rove seems to believe, or affects to believe, that things will be okay for Republicans in November. I hope he is right, and not smoking crack. Mr. Rove is many things, but stupid is not one of them. Logically then, he knows or understands something that we do not.
Mr. Rove's Rosy Scenario view presumes that the economy will continue to enjoy good health: that is, that higher gas prices and hurricane season will not affect present growth rates, much. There is reason for skepticism here, but lets suspend that for a moment. Take good economic numbers as a given. What else is Karl banking on ?
Mr. Rove says Iraq is a problem, but that things will be okay. . . This makes me think that, whatever the military situation is, a substantial withdrawal of troops from Iraq might be in the cards this summer.
2 comments:
Rove also gave an astute political analysis at the AEI speech (from Wash. Post transcript):
Look, we're in a sour time. I readily admit it.
I mean, being in the middle of a war where people turn on their television sets and see brave men and women dying is not something that makes people happy and optimistic and upbeat.
ROVE: But I'm absolutely confident that -- I heard this same kind of language about the 2004 elections in roughly the March, April, May, June period of June 2004.
We're going to be just fine in the fall elections.
And we're going to be fine because we stand for things that are important. We stand for strong natural defense abroad and complete victory in the war on terrorism which involves victory in Iraq.
We stand for a strong national defense. We stand for economic policies that are pro-growth, involving tax cuts and free trade. We are strongly for fiscal restraint in the budget process.
And our opponents, at this point, stand for little or nothing, except mere obstructionism. Whether it is the nomination of superbly qualified men and women to the judiciary, or our policies to reauthorize the Patriot Act to keep America safe in a time of global terror, the other party seems to stand for little except obstructionism.
And ultimately, the American people are a center-right country, who, presented with a center-right party with center-right candidates, will vote center-right.
I thought the President's speech was pretty reasonable. I trust his judgment and felt he explained his position well.
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