Blundering Into Trouble

As is well known by now, Iranian President Mahmoud "Mad Jad" Ahmadinejad has declared that Iran has, for the first time, successfully enriched uranium. Enrichment is one of the more difficult steps in the cycle for preparing fissile material for either a bomb, or to use as fuel for a nuclear reactor.

The UN Security Council has demanded that Iran stop. Today, the Deputy Chief of the Iranian Nuclear Program, Mr. Mohammad Saeedi, showed that he evaluates UN pronouncements at their true worth: he declared that Iran is not stopping, but about to start nuclear enrichment on an industrial scale.

US Secretary of State Rice has pronounced in favor of "strong steps" against Iran. The Russian Foreign Ministry has denounced the Iranian enrichment plans as "wrong" but at the same time indicated Russia's opposition to any military steps against Iran.

All of this follows on military maneuvers the Iranians have bent over backwards to boast about, and show to the public. The New York Post military analyst and commentator, retired US Army Colonel Ralph Peters, asked Sunday whether the Iranians actually want a war.

This is not a rhetorical question, but my judgment, for the moment, is that the answer is no: the Iranians do not want a war; they have simply calculated that they can have their yellowcake and eat it too -- that they can build a nuke, and that nobody can stop them.

The Americans appear to be tied down in Iraq. Militarily, that war is won, and has gone relatively well, but politically it is unpopular, and Bush is sinking domestically. Israel, the joker in the deck, appears paralyzed, trying to grope with Hamas and the demise of Ariel Sharon. The Europeans have their own domestic problems, and besides, the European political class despises Bush, so their foreign ministries are going to do nothing to lessen his difficulties. America's Italian friend, Signor Berlusconi, is being driven from office. President Bush's one heavyweight international ally: Tony Blair of Britain, is in serious trouble.

There is trouble closer to home for America, too. Besides sinking poll numbers, President Bush has to think about the approaching Mexican elections, which may put a very anti-US government in power there -- this is a 40 ton gorilla that nobody is talking about yet. (Recent US concern about immigration issues should be viewed in this light). Also, hurricane season is almost here, it's probably going to be a biggie, and the Americans are about broke.

And the Mullahs have allies. . .the Chinese are bankrolling Iran, and the Russians serving as the Mullahs' general store and armory. On the periphery, Hugo Chavez, who controls an important source of American gasoline, is signaling his willingness to cooperate with anybody in harassing the US -- American trouble with Iran is a win-win for him, trouble in the Persian Gulf means higher oil prices and more money. In North Korea, Dear Leader Kim is watching, and has shown he can be counted on to stir the pot when the US has enough on its plate elsewhere. Syria and the Sadr faction in Iraq are in there kicking, too. Washington would be foolish not to consider the extent to which all the players are collaborating. . .

The omens are auspicious. Why shouldn't Iran build nuclear weapons ? Once the Mullah regime has nukes, overnight it can ramp-up support for Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Assad's regime in Syria, guerrillas in Iraq, you name it. Nobody will be able to do a thing about it either. Shia populations all around the Persian Gulf will become instantly more restive, and all the local governments much more interested in what Tehran has to say, and that much less interested in Washington's blandishments. Prestige considerations from the point of view of enhancing Shia Islam's position in the Muslim world are important, also. Finally, an Iranian nuke will end even talk in America and elsewhere about regime change in Iran. Money for dissidents and other anti-regime elements will dry up: you simply do not threaten dictators who own nukes, no matter how odious they are.

Washington looks boxed in. . . at least from Tehran's perspective.

Except. . .

Saddam read the tea-leaves the same way in 2002. He is now awaiting execution. Saddam thought he could bluff George Bush, that President Bush would be stopped by world opinion; by political calculations, and the unwillingness of the chattering classes to upset applecarts. For better or worse, he learned differently.

The political graveyard, from Ann Richards to Al Gore, to John Kerry, et al, is full of bright, intelligent, interesting politicans -- real movers and shakers -- who all thought George W. Bush was a lightweight not to be taken seriously. If the 43rd President has proved anything, it is that he can do his political sums as well as anybody who ever played the game.

President Bush must know, by now, that the odds are very, very good that his likely successor will have very different opinions from his own. All presidents, to a degree, seek to bind their successors. Given the political landscape, President Bush has a certain incentive to use his power to create political facts: facts which his successors cannot change. President Bush has shown that he has strong convictions, and there is ample evidence that he is serious when he says Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon. I do not believe that President Bush will leave Iran for his successor to deal with.

Look at that political landscape again. As things stand, the Republicans are looking at a real débacle in the November congressional elections. Perhaps this will change, it's a long way to November, but maybe not. If the Democrats capture even one house of Congress this November, the rest of the President's term will consist of nothing more than fighting off moves for his impeachment. The Daily Kos set, which is contributing millions to Democratic coffers, will demand it. If he wants to do something, President Bush has ample incentive to shake-up the table, and sooner, rather than later.

The Iranians do not want a war. They think they've won already. But more than one war has started because the players didn't recognize the edge of the abyss when they stepped across it. The Iranians, at least to me, are staggering right up to it wearing blindfolds.