I find the lack of an announcement from the Obama camp on who is to be the Vice Presidential candidate extremely interesting. Today is Thursday, the 21st. Sunday the 24th is the closing ceremonies for the Beijing Olympics, and on Monday, 25 August 2008, the Democratic National Convention opens.
Obama's handlers will hardly wish to compete for news coverage with the end of the Olympics, but it would still be desirable to have the Vice Presidential candidate known before the convention opens. There are logistical problems that must be got through, and the campaign staff would not want buzz about who is to be Vice President detracting from the show's theme -- the triumph of the Great One.
I would think that the announcement would be today at the latest, to parade the new candidate in front of the press and get two news cycles done by the time the close of the Olympics completely takes over television. Obama's in Virginia, which would seem to point at Governor Kaine (or, despite denials, Senator Webb??).
The choice of Kaine would jibe with my own suspicions. McCain needs Virginia more than Obama does: it's very hard to see how McCain can win without Virginia's 13 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Obama has other routes that could give him victory, but St. Barack's picking the Governor of Virginia might be a great way to block McCain by putting Virginia in his column. Every day that McCain has to play defense in Virginia is a day less to play offense someplace interesting, such as Pennsylvania or Michigan. So Kaine's interesting. Funny, though, that all the buzz is about Biden.
I wonder if Obama is only just now getting it nailed down? He's really fallen rather dramatically in the polls, which changes his calculus of profit and loss quite a bit. I'm sure he doesn't want Hillary. But it is safe to pass her up? Does he need to nail down her voters: have her inside the tent rather than out? As for Governor Kaine, he's nationally an unknown. Are two rookies a smart move against McCain?
St. Barack is in a pickle. Here's hoping he stays there. Personally, I'm really hoping it's Biden -- I think that's a loser choice. We'll know soon enough.