Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Snow in Michigan. . .

Brrrr ! Who will come to the polls ?
Hillary will probably win the Democratic primary handily, specially since she's the only candidate on the ballot. . . ;-) Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is unhappy at the early Michigan primary, so delegates selected here may not count anyway. Moreover, we have sites like Daily Kos urging their readers to go play in the Republican primary and help the Republicans pick a loser. . .
Romney is something of a favorite son, and it seems as if there's been some movement to him in the last few days, judging from the Real Clear Politics poll averages. These averages are heavily weighted by one poll that gives Romney a six percent lead: the pollsters on that survey seem to think that Romney is really picking up undecideds. But who will vote today ?
A dog's breakfast of variables here. Independents liked McCain a few years ago. . .but the favorite son factor for Romney, and the influence of Democrats might have an effect. I hope I'm very wrong, and Blogging Caesar correct, but I think Romney -- who really must win to stay alive -- wins this by a nose, with McCain just behind him.
ADDENDUM (4:29 p.m., central time). Apparently, turn out is quite light, because of weather and the lack of a Democratic contest. A New York Observer headline accurately sums up the stakes in Michigan today for Republicans: "McCain Means Order, Romney (or Huckabee) Means Chaos."

1 comment:

louielouie said...

specially since she's the only candidate on the ballot. . . ;-)

sounds rather saddamish to me.
but i bet that's their idea for the future.