Wednesday, January 23, 2008

The Decisive Battle

A new poll, by Insider Advantage (available via Real Clear Politics) has Romney up by 5 points in Florida, with 20.2 percent of Republican voters favoring the Massachusetts governor. Giuliani is in second, with 19 percent, and McCain close behind with 18 percent.
Real Clear Politics' average of polls still has McCain enjoying a lead, but it is clearly shrinking, and the trend does not appear to be in his favour. It looks as if Thompson's supporters have gone to Romney, and I think that some of Huckabee's might be bleeding his way also. Finally, the relentless attacks on McCain by conservative luminaries who should know better appear, alas, to be having an effect.
If McCain can hold on and win here, I am prepared to predict he will be the Republican nominee, and to opine that he has a good chance of being elected President. Huckabee appears to be almost out of contention. Giuliani must win here, I think, to survive to compete on Tsunami Tuesday, and Romney needs to win almost as badly. But a victory by Giuliani or Romney would make the situation no clearer, and I think either of them (to say nothing of Huckabee) would be easy meat for the Democratic nominee. At this point, every day that the Republican struggle continues makes it harder to unite the Party later for the general election. Florida, then, looks to be decisive for the Republicans, and we will know which way soon enough.
Meanwhile, General H. Norman Schwarzkopf, commander of US and coalition forces in the First Gulf War, appears to be ready to endorse Senator McCain. This is good, but more is needed, and quickly. Hey Senator, hope you're on the line to your old friend Fred Thompson.

3 comments:

Allen Fuller said...

I'm thinking that Romney actually has a far better chance than McCain.

That is a shame because Romney is really not that conservative. He and his big money have managed to hoodwink a lot of conservatives about who he really is. He's flip-flopped on more than just abortion-- the list includes illegal immigration, gay marriage, gun rights, taxes, admiration for Reagan, and so on.

His recent "conversions" have been just too conveniently timed to be genuine.

Question to Romney-heads: How do you know he will not change his mind again in 2 years?

Answer: You don't.

Allen Fuller said...

And to any Romney-heads who might retort "well if you think Romney is not conservative enough then what are you doing supporting McCain?" Well, first, I don't support McCain, I support Huckabee. He's truly conservative (see OnTheIssues.org to explode the "Huck is a liberal" myth). And I believe in his positions and his character and that he won't change his position.

That said, I respect McCain more than I do Romney, because at least I know more or less where he stands. I can't trust Romney at all, given his past history of taking the most politically convenient position for the circumstance.

Donald Douglas said...

The polls are all over the place in Florida, but McCain's pulling it out everywhere else:

American Power