Foreign Policy as Social Work

Hillary Clinton, who for some unknown reason thinks that she is qualified to be President of the United States, said today that President Bush should boycott the opening ceremonies of this summer's Beijing Olympic Games, because of ". . .the violent clashes in Tibet and the failure of the Chinese government to use its full leverage with Sudan to stop the genocide in Darfur."

Senator Clinton thinks that gratuitously slapping the diplomatic face of one of our largest foreign creditors, not to mention insulting a major military power, is one of those precious "opportunities for presidential leadership." Somewhat like, I suppose, St. Barack of Obama's ideas on invading Pakistan. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who doesn't have to be responsible for anything, agrees with Hillary, and thinks Bush should stay away. Maybe Mrs. Pelosi needs to visit Syria again.

I'm sure the Chinese Foreign Ministry will be real impressed with our concern over Darfur and Tibet next time we want them to buy our Treasury bills (or refrain from, God forbid, dumping them suddenly); hold off on selling Iran weapons, or not use their veto in the UN. We have plenty of real problems with China, which is going to be a much, much more dangerous great power rival for the United States than the Soviet Union ever was in our wildest nightmares. Given our current real and our future probable difficulties with China over matters like, um -- oil, debts, balances of trade, resources, the Taiwan Straits, Korea, not to mention Chinese arms and diplomatic cover for every anti-American tinpot on the planet -- why would we deliberately look for more trouble ?

Because to liberals, the real world is trivial. To the left, the only foreign policy issues that are worth making a crisis over are those from which the United States can derive no conceivable benefit. This tempest in the tea-house surely fills the pot -- stirring up trouble with China for the sake of Tibet: a place that has never in modern memory been independent, and which (absent a war) has about as much chance at independence as South Carolina (less, actually) -- sounds like a sane foreign policy move to me.

Are the Democrats on the same planet as the rest of us ? No, stupid question, they're still in orbit around Planet 60's, where every crisis is Selma in another form; where Nixon never resigned, and all problems can be solved with a big faculty senate meeting and lots of touchy-feely facilitators. For the Democrats foreign and military policy are not tools for accomplishing real tasks that are in the interest of the United States, but exist simply as tools to bash the evil right wing, and as cost-free vehicles of social protest.

There are valid reasons for the US to regard China as a hostile power, and there are definitely quarrels with the Chinese that we need to have. But over Tibet and Darfur ?

No Absolut Vodka

My first reaction to this was that I'll never drink Absolut vodka. That was my second, third and fourth reaction also, and I'm sure plenty of patriotic Americans feel the same way.

The now-notorious Absolut map, is part of an ad campaign Absolut was running in Mexico. This campaign showed reality in an "Absolut" -- that is -- perfect world, where the Reconquista has gone forward, and Mexico has gotten back all the territory it lost following the 1836 Texas War of Independence; the 1846-1848 Mexican War; and the 1854 Gadsden Purchase.

Absolut has cancelled the ad campaign, and says it apologizes. Sorry, but for me, that does not cut the mustard: the injury is the same and now the ad campaign probably has tons more publicity than its makers ever imagined. Now Absolut is caught between people like El Jefe who are angry about the ad, and its targeted audience that probably liked it.

In any case, I think that the Absolut Map deserves more thought by Americans than the anger and revulsion of a simple emotional reaction. Revanchism is a very real historical and political force -- and one for which Americans have no ready frame of reference. Pressed to explain its ad, Absolut pointed out on its blog that "was based upon historical perspectives and was created with a Mexican sensibility." Unlike most of the rest of the world, Americans have never, ever, been in the position of losing territory to foreign neighbors. Since the founding of the Republic, US territory (save for the temporary exception of the secession of the Confederate States) has only increased, and Americans have never found themselves, as have our Mexican neighbors, on the losing end of a peace treaty that extorted part of the national territory at gunpoint.

May that perspective never change. But it is dangerous and naive to think that the Absolut Map is absolutely beyond the realm of possibility, and it is stupid to think that patriotic Mexicans might not feel that the history of our common border is a little less of a closed subject than patriotic Americans think it is. For hundreds of years until 1945, Breslau, Konigsberg, and Stettin were German cities. The River Pregolya was once the Pregel; and the Kaliningradskiy Zaliv was for centuries known as the Frisches Haff. Then, the Germans blundered royally, and the names, borders and inhabitants changed, the boundries being redrawn in blood. This was common in Europe: a Frenchman could have been born in Metz in 1850, become a German in 1871, lived long enough to be French again in 1918, then if especially long-lived, be a German again from 1940-1944, and then back to being a Frenchman.

Don't kid yourself that it can't happen here. Of course it can -- it has throughout history, and if it does, don't blame the Mexicans. No shame on them for taking whatever opportunities history gives them. It's up to us, every day, to keep our place in the world. Shame on us and on our children if Texas ever becomes Tejas or Mexico ever owns the Gunnison River. The future is never certain, and always up to us.

Monday Morning

The affairs of El Jefe's vast empire sat unattended this weekend, after El Jefe adjourned to his hacienda in the provinces on Saturday afternoon, accompanied only by his cat FLINKY. (SWMBO, the Heir and the other cats stayed in Ciudad El Jefe).

El Jefe didn't do much productive beyond yardwork, plus some fiddling with yard equipment, reading and enjoying the peace and quiet. The weather was as splendid as it gets in south-central Texas. Perhaps this evening I'll add a photograph to this post. Enjoyed most of a splendid bottle of Merlot with dinner Saturday (Becker Vineyards, Merlot (2006)). The Merlot went down very well with a ginormous New York Strip and some mushrooms.

I have possibly said in here before that I don't watch much television. I've never seen American Idol, Survivor (is that still on ?) or any of that sort of thing. (Yes, yes, I'm pop-culturally dead, I know it. But I'm warped enough to think that's a good thing). However, I do watch movies on DVD, as well as old television programs that have been re-released on DVD. Thanks to the Heir and SWMBO, I now have a complete set of Magnum P.I. -- my favorite TV program ever; and I have recently started to watch Hawaii Five-O, (Magnum's forerunner), which is at last available in DVD. Watched an episode last night -- supposedly the first episode in which Steve McGarrett utters the immortal line "Book 'em !" Even if you can't stand cop dramas, Five O's worth a look just to see the huge mid 60's automobiles and the loud 60's clothes. The scenery will no doubt remind many late Boomers and early X'ers of childhood.

Alas, the real world didn't go anyplace, and I'm back in it. Got up early this morning and drove back into Cuidad El Jefe in time to take the Heir to school.

Zimbabwe's "Election" Proceeds

With Mugabe beaten at the polls, the real Zimbabwe election is underway even now. Time reports that Mugabe is apparently trying to negotiate a dignified exit, or figure out a plausible way to steal the election. Everything depends on the military and police: boiled down, will the troops shoot, or won't they ?

If Mugabe steals it, it will probably be through the mechanism of some type of runoff. This way, he can say that he has allowed the process to proceed, but that the opposition just fell a little short. But this is a bad option for him -- it's taken too long, and it's too obvious he's lost. Trouble is, he has no good, safe options. If he steps down, he opens himself to legal proceedings and prosecutions; if he fights and steals the election, he might lose everything, and wind up strung up (as he deserves) outside his palace.

Even if the dictator wins, he loses. When the Maximum Leader has to blatantly steal elections after the votes are cast, and so obviously make a mockery of the process (instead of successfully manipulating it from the get-go) -- the dictator has already lost. The dictator is forced to depend too much on brute force, and he becomes his servants' captive: favored with their loyalty only so long as he can buy it. They may get a better offer by lunchtime.

But, for Mugabe, are there really alternatives ? One of the downsides to the modern mania for "truth commissions" (as in Chile and South Africa) and the growth of international human rights law is that it is harder for countries like Zimbabwe to get rid of their dictators. Why should the Boss, no matter how despised he may be, voluntarily give up power ? There's no percentage in being reasonable if the reward is not an ignored but comfortable retirement to write memoirs, gamble and drink someplace; but lawyers, harassment, prison and humiliation for the rest of your days. One wonders if Augusto Pinochet would have chosen to honor the election results that unseated him as President of Chile had he accurately foreseen his future as a plaything of crusading judges and the international left's favorite hate object ?

Maybe the modern trend to prosecute former Mr. Bigs gives the loved-ones of dead victims of the dictators some feeling that justice has at last been done. However, as a practical political matter, it makes it harder for the still living to get rid of their dictator. If prosecution's the result of stepping down, why not go down fighting ?

In the present case, the prospects of peaceful change are possibly aided by Mugabe's status as something of a former left-wing icon. He can probably expect more respectful treatment by the lawyers and media than somebody like Pinochet. The cases are indeed different: Pinochet left behind a prosperous country much richer than when he shot his way into power. Mugabe's Zimbabwe has 100,000 percent inflation. But Mugabe's a Marxist revolutionary (although to his credit, he did end minority rule in Rhodesia, only to bless his country with one man, one vote, once). By contrast, Pinochet was an Army general who revolted against another (incompetent) left-wing icon. In the real world, that's a big, big difference, and maybe the only reason there is any prospect of Mugabe's being induced to put down the gun and leave quietly.

UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph reports this evening that parts of the military leadership are negotiating with the Movement for Democratic Change (opposition) candidate, Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai (winner in Saturday's balloting). The parties are discussing the terms under which the dictator would agree to leave. Mugabe is looking, the piece says, for a dignified exit and immunity from prosecution. God grant that it be true. If it is, the participation of the military leadership tells me the jig is up. Naturally, Mr. Tsvangirai denies that any such conversations are taking place.

Mugabe Beaten

It looks as if Bad Bob Mugabe has lost yesterday's Zimbabwe Presidential election. The elections seem to have been more or less fair (a bad sign for the dictator right there), but the giveaway is that the results aren't coming out yet.

If the dictator is having to so blatantly rig the count, he has already lost. It indicates two things: (1) the anti-Mugabe vote was so high that minor tampering won't work; and (2) that the other controls: the administration of the poll itself, together with intimidation and violence against opponents -- have already failed.

Okay, now comes the real election. How good are your police Bob ? Are your bureaucrats and goons going to obey now, or save themselves by throwing your carcass off the palace balcony ?

Hillary Landing in Bosnia

Wow ! It's all true ! Hillary WAS under fire landing in War Torn Bosnia. . .




As you can see, like the Marines, she landed, and the situation was well in hand. . .

Cars for Votes ? Nah, Just the Dictator Racket

Reuters reports that Zimbabwe's resident tin-pot, Robert Mugabe, is handing out cars to doctors in advance of Saturday's supposed elections. It's not only cars for doctors, but the Mugabe regime is handing out farm equipment, buses, probably even dates with Spitzer's whores.

The opposition is accusing the Leader of "vote-buying." Ha. Shows what they know, although it might work for Hillary and Obama on their superdelegates. Actually, Tyrant Mugabe's not buying votes from the doctors, or anybody else, nor is he paying very much.

In the first place (even assuming the doctors are allowed by Mugabe's goons to actually drive off in these cars) they probably won't get very far: how are they going to fuel the things ? Most gas stations are closed -- Mugabe's not got the foreign exchange to afford fuel for ordinary people. Gas is just one economic worry: as an: 80 percent unemployment and a 100,580 percent inflation rate possibly illustrate. Bread is Zim$ 25 million (62 cents US). Maybe the doctors can sell their cars abroad for food (good luck getting them out). Besides, who wants gifts like that ? Mugabe can just take them back again the day after the "elections." The whole exercise is less about buying votes than showing Mugabe's goons that the Boss still has perks to give out and impressing Doubting Thomases with the regime's power.

These "elections" are more interesting than normal for Zimbabwe (so far, their national history is "one man, one vote, once"). This time round there may actually be real opposition to the 84 year old Mr. Mugabe. No, not Morgan Tsvangirai. Brave as Mr. Tsvangirai is, the real opposition is the former Minister of Finance and Development, Simba Makoni, a defector from Mr. Mugabe's own party. Mr. Makoni might actually have a prayer at winning the real election -- that is, getting the security forces and the party apparat to turn on Mr. Mugabe. More likely he'll wind up dead or exiled.

Still, the Bloomberg piece linked above (in connection with the inflation number) says that the mining industry and its investors are betting that Fat Bob's days as Jefe of Zimbabwe are numbered. Quite possibly correct, but I seriously doubt the vehicle will be a free and fair election. More likely a case of lead poisoning.

Being a dictator/man of destiny like Fat Bob is a hard job: both physically and mentally challenging and possibly beyond the ability of an 84 year old to keep performing much longer. The basic elements of the President for Life gig are a source of foreign exchange; rich people (who didn’t flee in time) for the Leader to expropriate; a foreign enemy to rhetorically rail against; and a youngish leader who has the stones for the job.

Most importantly, dictatorship is not a one man occupation -- the supporting cast is essential. You need lots of young idiots mouthing slogans, stiffened by a cadre of careerists without scruples who’d jail their own mommas for a spiffy uniform and a percentage; plus ceaseless mobilization of everybody and everything (to keep an eye on people and make them feel important all at once – like Chavez’s “Bolivarian Circles”, the Soviet “Young Pioneers” or the Hitler Youth). Finally, the would-be boss thrives with a compliant bureaucracy that doesn't ask questions if the forms are in order, and plenty of good lawyers. The business class might not be an obstacle if the Leader keeps the graft in reasonable bounds: with some lawyers they'll become good at gaming the system to their own advantage and using it to crush their smaller rivals.

A good extra is an obvious hated minority for ordinary slugs to feel superior to (recent example would be Tibetans to Han Chinese). Also, dictators need some Useful Idiots (academic or media types are best) to run interference in the US and Euro media. Take all this, add a dash of good propaganda, and you have the makings of a real successful and long-running cult-of-personality People’s Democracy.

But the dictator ecosystem eventually breaks down, usually over the leadership succession; or the economy seizes up (too much spending, nothing left to steal); or the dictator allows rivals to develop as he ages. Sometimes all three, which is what seems to be happening in Zimbabwe. The story usually ends badly. . .and in Fat Bob Mugabe's case, here’s hoping it’s sooner, rather than later.

Study Groups for the Apocalypse

Today’s Washington Post online has an interesting op-ed piece by a former weapons inspector in Iraq, Jay Davis on the dreadful subject of what would happen after a nuclear 9/11. Mr. Davis serves on one of the alphabet-soup federal offices our government is so adept at creating: the “Threat Reduction Advisory Committee” of the Department of Defense. (No doubt they have some very spiffy letterhead). Specifically, Mr. Davis is concerned with the arcane field of “nuclear forensics” – in this context the analysis of “isotopic signatures” and other characteristics of nuclear explosions to determine the likely source of the nuclear materials used.

Mr. Davis points out that after 9/11, the time between the fall of the twin towers and “our response in Afghanistan” was a month, and Mr. Davis argues that we need to better prepare for a “nuclear 9/11” so as to better finger the perpetrators, because “current US nuclear forensics capability. . .can’t guarantee definitive information within a month of an attack” This is a concern because, among other things, “we won’t have months to respond. There would be enormous pressure to rapidly identify the terrorists and the chain of events leading up to the attack.”

Well, that’s an understatement if ever there was one. Mr. Davis suggests that we need to improve the speed and accuracy of our nuclear forensics: the better to obtain essential “international collaboration” and to assemble the proof that it will take for the “world to believe our analysis.” Finally, Mr. Davis says, “we need to manage expectations and prepare for the inevitable political pressure to respond quickly after an attack.”

I agree that Mr. Davis raises some valid concerns and good ideas, and that improving the US nuclear forensics capability would indeed be sound policy. But if anybody thinks that the people of the United States would tolerate lawyer bingo or interminable investigations by alphabet soup agencies to assemble proof satisfactory enough for the talking heads and the international UN bonzes to produce “international collaboration” in the wake of a city-buster, nuclear 9/11 type attack – then they are smoking crack.

“Manage expectations ?” “Prepare for political pressure ?” Brother. If Mr. Davis’s nightmare ever happens, we’re not talking about “nuclear forensics” anymore. A nuclear attack on an American city, by terrorists, foreign states, or whoever, would change all of the rules overnight. The alphabet soup/special commission/study group games that Washington so loves would go right by the boards, and quite possibly the Constitution and everything else we accept as normal. If for example, Al Qaeda were to launch such a nuclear attack on the United States, we would no longer be talking about the rights of detainees at Guantanamo; or US compliance with the Geneva Conventions; or the appropriate UN resolutions; or proof of culpability – but instead, the question of permitting the continued existence, period, of Al Qaeda supporters, and the cities and cultures that feed them – anyplace on this planet. Hopefully, we elect to put more money, talent and thought into apocalypse prevention than we do into apocalypse studies.

Spring Break Catchup, Books

Last week was very slow in the Kingdom, due mostly to Spring Break and Easter; plus a dinner party for El Jefe (which was lots of fun) and brief trips out of town at the beginning and the end of the week.

SWMBO had a bug requiring a visit to the local medicos over the weekend. Everything is (very thankfully) okay, but the doctor visit took longer than anticipated, so to pass the time while inhabiting waiting rooms and similar places, El Jefe stepped next door and invested in Jonathan Kellerman's excellent thriller, Obsession. In Obsession, Kellerman's usual protagonist, psychologist Alex Delaware, teams-up yet again with his friend, LAPD Detective Milo Sturgis, to solve a cryptic mystery left by the deceased guardian of an old patient of Dr. Delaware. Lots of seedy bad guys and other interesting characters, and plenty of oh-my-gosh situations ensure that you won't want to put this one down. Burned through it in an evening plus a lunch time.

In other reading, I'm presently working on the second volume of Shelby Foote's trilogy The Civil War. Made some progress in it over the break, and just got through Foote's discussion of Gettysburg and Vicksburg. Since El Jefe's of a somewhat pro-Southern persuasion, the rest of the history is sort of downhill, so it's apt to take longer than I originally anticipated to plow through these excellent books.

Plenty of other books are waiting around: when I'm done with Mr. Foote, I think I'm going to change areas entirely and read Adam Tooze's economic history of the Nazi German economy: The Wages of Destruction. I've had this one sitting around for about a year, and have grazed in it a good amount already, but it deseves some more concentrated attention. Mr. Tooze's economic perspective of the constraints (real and perceived) driving German (i.e. Hitler's) decision making in World War II and the years leading up to it is right up my alley, and, in my opinion, long overdue.

On a somewhat lighter note: I keep meaning to read Mario Puzo's The Sicilian (one of his I managed to miss). Also, I have Stephen White's Dry Ice (at last out in paper), which I hope to make a start on soon.

Plus, there's always real life, which lately has had lots to recommend it, plus working (paying the bills, I have found, is usually approved of). In any case, some of this is the reason for the, er, absence of much posting over the past week. El Jefe (and all in the Kingdom save the ever-vigilant Organs of State Security) are in catch-up mode this week, particularly at work. Never fear, something will appear presently: I'm working on something about Iraq, as well as on the business in Tibet.

Rodeo

Last night, SWMBO and I accompanied our friends the C's to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo last night. The Rodeo is a Ciudad El Jefe institution, and almost always puts on events worth attending. We wandered around the carnival, drank a little beer, looked at the knick-knacks on sale in the Exhibit Hall, had dinner, and then wandered into Reliant Stadium to hear Fergie.

Now, El Jefe (when he listens to music) generally listens to XM Satellite Radio, or his own considerable music collection. El Jefe's preferred musical entertainment collection is somewhat eclectic, heavily sauced with lots of 80's stuff, a good deal of classical music, some country, a big soundtrack collection, and weird things like the occasional album of Deutsche Marschmusik or the Band of the Coldstream Guards. One of the downsides to these habits is that, by virtue of market segmentation and, er, eccentricity -- El Jefe is perhaps less aware of what is new, and gets somewhat culturally disconnected. In general, I don't see this as too much of a loss, but there are exceptions. In any case, I didn't know much about Fergie, other than what I'd heard from occasional blasts from the Heir's I-Pod or whatever that thing is. Somewhat to my own surprise, I was very impressed, although perhaps the beer helped.

The audience had a lot of kids (teens and adolescents) many of whom were up far past what should have been their proper bedtimes. They, of course, loved Fergie, and were dancing in the aisles, but she didn't leave the adults out either, playing some Led Zeppelin and some Heart so that us fogies felt included also. Fergie put on a really good show, and gave the audience their money's worth.

The Weekend, Burfday

Off at the country hacienda for the weekend. It will be a long weekend since I have the first couple of days of next week off. It's a gorgeous day here, as I hope it is wherever you might be.

My friend T connived with SWMBO and the Heir on Friday night and gave me a surprise birthday dinner. I was completely surprised, and T and her family were so kind to have us around. She sort of beat me to the punch in the blog post department. In any case, that was lots of fun.

Man in the Arena

Normally, I am not a video person. I much prefer paper, and reading something, to video or audio. Occsionally, however, there are exceptions, and John McCain's splendid You Tube video ad "Man in the Arena" is one of them, and it's definitely worth your time. Check it out and pass it on.

Friday Dreaming

El Jefe is snoozing in his verandah armchair, and all is quiet. His glass of scotch is on the wicker table at his side, along with FLINKY the cat, yesterday's Daily Telegraph and Count Ciano's diaries. But where are we ? Maybe it's El Jefe's rent-a-palace, because for some unexplained reason, a sign over the palácio entrance proclams that the place is the Palácio del Gobierno de Nuevo York. Out on the palace grounds, for some strange reason (dreams are like that) steamrollers are cruising around, but quietly, so as not to awaken the Great One.

Meanwhile, El Jefe slumbers on, dreaming no doubt of Jenny McCarthy, lunch in Estoril (or was it Seaside ?), and sunsets in Baja. As the Maximum Leader snores, El Jefe's faithful retainer, bodyguard and very old-school Prussian major-domo, Fritz, approaches, carrying a ginormous silver platter with a huge telephone on it; which he plugs in. Momentarily ditching his German accent in favour of that of an English butler (all the while carefully avoiding dropping his monocle in El Jefe's scotch) Fritz intones: "The phone, sir. It's Mr. Churchill in London."

And the alarm rings. . .dragging the Great One back to a much, much less interesting and pleasant reality. Have been hard at work this week on the day job, so less time for posting than I would like. Hopefully, I will make up for that soon. Too, too much of interest going on in the world -- precious little that's good. If you're in a tall building, look outside, you might see the dollar or the occasional banker falling like a stone. Don't jump after them yet though.

Beldar's Spitzer Posts

I was going to have more to say on the Spitzer mess in New York, but Beldar's superb and legally well-informed posts (here and here) over at Beldar Blog make my projected post superfluous. Be sure to check them out.

I had wondered why the Governor was delaying a resignation. Had Mr. Spitzer been genuinely contrite, or even a gentleman, he would have resigned and disappeared into seclusion, without comments or press conferences; without dragging his wife in front of the cameras, immediately upon this matter becoming public. Beldar's musings about negotiations for a plea-bargain possibly being in the works provide at least a tactical explanation for his behavior these last two days in hanging on to his office. I suppose that it is too much to expect that a man would refrain from using an office of state as some kind of a bargaining chip: that he would put his duty to his office and to the electors ahead of saving his own skin.

So THAT'S Why The Democrats Don't Like FISA. . .

Okay, that's a joke -- this is a domestic matter anyway. But I guess the phone companies cooperated on this one. . . Hope it was worth it, Governor.

China Tortures Cats

The Chinese government is torturing and killing thousands of cats.

Apparently, the Chinese authorities have decided to clean up Beijing in advance of the Olympic Games, so they are rounding up cats, including pets, and shipping them off to die in "death camps" on the edge of Beijing. There is an official government advertising and propaganda campaign to gin-up paranoia about diseases carried by cats, and, according to the article in the Daily Mail "ordering residents to help clear the streets of them." Pet owners are being intimidated by the government into abandoning their pets.

Animal welfare groups in China are protesting -- and in that country, protesting government decisions of any kind is truly heroic.

What other government in the world could get away with such a thing ? Given some other things the Chinese do, I don't suppose that this latest outrage should be a surprise, but deliberate starvation and killing of so many otherwise unoffending cats, including pets, who depend on humans for their welfare and protection shocks the conscience.

What can we do ? Not much, unfortunately, beyond telling as many people as possible what the Chinese are doing to their cats; and avoid viewing the televised Olympic Games; boycotting the broadcast's advertisers and not buying as many Chinese knick-knacks as we can.

(Hat tip: American Thinker).

Winehead: It's Later Than You Think. . .

El Jefe and SWMBO attended a family wedding yesterday, then El Jefe dropped-in on friend T and her family. Sat up till the wee small hours drinking red wine on their back deck. Spent the smaller hours drinking gobs of water to avoid the consequences.

Woke up with a minor winehead, (although nothing like what I deserved). SWMBO helped cure it by dispatching me to the Kolache shop for breakfast. It is almost never a good idea to send El Jefe on a foraging expedition before breakfast, and today was no exception, I came back with plenty of goodies. Fortunately, the Kolache Factory is next door to the local Starbucks, and a vente black coffee and some baked edibles did wonders for my disposition.

Hurrah ! Normal time has at last returned. I hate Fall Back but love Spring Forward. El Jefe is totally pumped about the arrival of Daylight Frikkin Normal Savings Time this morning. Now it's not black as a coal-pit at 6 p.m. Saw some schweinehund proposing to get rid of Daylight Savings Time in favor of Standard Time the other day. I don't know about folks near the east coast and in the northern latitudes, where the sun appears on a slightly different schedule, but those of us in flyover country like our long evenings, thank you very much. Anyway, I'd keep Daylight Savings Time year round.

Florida and Michigan

I keep coming back to Florida.

Actually, I keep coming back to it in many ways: it's my favorite vacation spot, and I'm so hoping that a trip to Seaside is in the not-too-distant future. But today, I'm coming back to it for a much less pleasant purpose.

I still remember watching Tim Russert the night of the crazy 2000 election, writing "Florida ! Florida ! Florida !" on a marker-board sometime during that long evening, when it became apparent that everything was going to boil down to dimpled chads in the Florida boonies.

Anyway, it's back to Florida (and Michigan) again. As is well known, the Democratic National Committee is refusing to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, because those States violated that entity's edicts on the timing of their primaries. It looks to me like, if Hillary Clinton is to have any chance at all at capturing her party's nomination, that she will have to have these delegates.

As best I can determine from a very unscientific and rapid internet search, there are approximately 210 Florida Democratic delegates, and of these, Hilla would garner approximately 111; St. Barack 69; Edwards 13; with 17 unpledged).

Michigan would have 156, with Hilla taking 81; the Chosen One 57; and 18 remaining undeclared. This is avoiding the whole pledged/unpledged question, and laying aside the question of unpledged and undecided delegates.

As of today, according to the Real Clear Politics delegate totals, giving Obama 1546, and Clinton 1449, (advantage to Obama of 97 delegates), addition of the Florida delegates would close the gap to 31 delegates in Obama's favor (St. Barack 1672, Hilla 1641).

I don't see how Hillary can avoid some kind of effort to put these States back on the board. I really think she must try.

How to do it ? How to accomplish this without looking like a cheater for changing the rules ? Answer: she can't -- the best she can do is to finesse the issue, move first and challenge (with as much fanfare as possible) Obama to have the Florida and Michigan elections over again. She must do it this way -- she cannot try to claim the delegates outright, because the cries of "foul" might prompt the superdelegates to intervene and end the contest.

To build momentum, she needs for the do-over to occur after the Pennsylvania primary (Tuesday 22 April) -- which she must win big. Senator Clinton must pose as the champion of counting all the votes, the defender of Florida and Michigan Democrats, and invoke the memory of the disputed 2000 Presidential election.

If Obama stands on his rights, and declares his intention to abide by the DNC's earlier determination, I think he's got a problem, because he's cutting against the great Democratic totem that "every vote must count." Ultimately, he'll have to go along with it, because he dare not offend Florida Democrats if he wants to win come November.

Hillary has to hope that, in a do-over, she can do as well as she did the first go-round. This also assumes that she will do well in Pennsylvania. But more importantly, she has to hope that Obama balks and refuses initially -- hurting his chances on a re-do. But she really must try it -- she must do something to get those votes.

Conclusion: the party with the advantage is the party proposing the re-do first.

The Shape of the Whole. . .

Senator McCain is now officially the nominee, and is to appear at the White House today to receive the President's official endorsement. The Republicans, in what will be a hard year for them anyway, enjoy great good fortune by having as their candidate the only man in their field this year who had any chance at all. Congratulations to Senator McCain.

As for the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton's victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island may not mean much -- as the great and good are pointing out this morning, the delegate math is forbidding. Hilla will never admit it, but she probably owes a lot of her resurrection in Texas to none other than Rush Limbaugh. Yes, that's right: the esteemed El Rushbo spent a week urging Texas Republicans who weren't ready to go to McCain yet to cross over and vote for Hillary, just to keep the Democratic fight going. Good move ! As Rush recognized, Republicans and the country benefit by having the Democrats imitate the scorpions in the bottle for as long as possible.

For the first time, St. Barack looks a little rattled -- maybe Hillary's blitz 'em with everything strategy got to him. Memo to the McCainacs: attacking Obama works. Try it -- get in his face a little and tell him "No You Can't." Wonder if Hillary would have done better going that way sooner ?

But the media coverage today is what's really interesting here. I guess the Saturday Night Line skit got the reporters off the dime, and got them asking Obama some questions that they should have been asking a long time ago. You'd expect the storyline today to be all about Hilla the Wonder/Underdog; the tough one; battling on against the odds, yadda, yadda, yadda. But the line of the day is math and delegate numbers. The Candidate of Hope and his surrogates aren't talking about hope and unity and all that happy Barbra Streisand they've been pushing for weeks-- they're talking about superdelegates and proportional representation, winning in the end and hopelessness for Hillary; and the media's following suit. As John Podhoretz recognizes this morning, this treatment of Mrs. Clinton's resurrection by the media -- ignoring her wins, and talking about the numbers -- just shows how much the media political junkies, want, want, want their precious Messiah, St. Barack of Obama.

Finally, there's been a minor kerfluffle in the past hour about Hillary hinting at a shared ticket: Mrs. Clinton's quoted this morning as saying that such an outcome "may be where this is headed." However, Mrs. Clinton correctly notes that "of course we have to decide who is on the top of [the] ticket" and she adds that the "people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me." That's the Hillary we know ! Who could imagine any other outcome ? Here's hoping she and Obama fight this one out for a good while yet.

Rockets from Gaza. . .I Wonder What's Next ?

AFP reports that Israeli military intelligence has identified some of the rockets Hamas has been firing into Israel of late from Gaza as being of Iranian manufacture. In a significant escalation of the terrorist organization's rocket harassment of Israel, about a dozen of the rockets Hamas fired into Israel hit the city of Ashkelon (pop. 120,000) over the weekend. Ashkelon is 11 miles north of Gaza.

The Iranian rockets in question are originally of Russian design. The Russian version, the BM-21 "Grad" ("Hail"), is a 122 mm rocket-artillery weapon, meant to be fired in volleys of about 40 from a truck-mounted launcher. The Iranians manufacture at least three versions (also truck-mounted), all of which have a range of about 12 and a half miles. If you have your map of Israel handy, a Grad rocket fired from Gaza could make it a little over half-way to Ashdod, up the coast from Gaza (that is, right to Ashkelon); or, if fired from the middle of the Gaza Strip, about half-way to Beersheba, in south-central Israel. The weapon can carry high explosive/fragmentation, chemical or incendiary warheads

In general. rocket-artillery of this type is less accurate than plain-old tube artillery, but it can drop lots of explosives in a target area in only a few minutes.

The appearance of the Iranian rockets in Gaza is ominous, on several levels. The Israelis are gradually being forced to become accustomed to bombardment by longer-range rockets, of a more sophisticated type than the home-made Qassams hitherto used by Hamas. There is no realistic way for the Israeli military or civil defense to distinguish -- prior to the explosion -- between a Qassam carrying homemade explosives and a 122-mm Grad carrying a chemical warhead, or military-grade explosive.

The appearance of these rockets is proof-positive, if any were needed, that the Iranians have the ability to smuggle heavy weapons into Gaza. Iran's client Hezbollah's already got a launch-pad in southern Lebanon -- we saw it in operation in 2006. Now, Israel's enemies (Iran at the back of them again) are developing a second rocket launching point in Gaza. Probably, heavier weapons will soon make their appearance, much as happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is extremely unlikely the rockets came in by sea -- most likely they arrived over the Egyptian land border during the disturbances there, which doesn't say much that's good about the likely state of affairs across that border.

Can the Israelis really afford to sit quietly and allow the Iranians to work on their nuclear weapon ? I honestly don't see how. They either have to clear out Lebanon and Gaza, or they have to make sure the Iranians never get their nuke.

The Iranians are playing a very dangerous game. Do they understand that, or not ?

Yes, It's Monday. . .

Monday morning at the Palace of El Jefe. . .not a creature is stirring, except the Secret Police, and the faithful, ever watchful gumba guards. Otherwise, all is quiet and all are happily snoozing in the arms of Morpheus: the valets, the cooks, the great and the good, the off-track betting manager, the sports steroids commissioner, and the prelates of the state chuch. . .El Jefe, the cats SWMBO and the Heir are sleeping also, dreaming of stock-certificates, gold futures, zero-coupon bonds, bon-bons, good scotch and catnip. But wait: for some reason, El Jefe's Jenny McCarthy look-alike mistress is shaking him...trying to wake him up.

No...no, it's the alarm clock, a most annoying thing, and back I come to reality.

Sorry I've been slacking-off in the posting department lately. El Jefe and his cat FLINKY skipped town this weekend and went up to the country palace, and did little but yardwork, reading and movie-watching. Not even a thought of something so ghastly as politics.

Back late last night and poured through the papers and blogs this morning. My horseback guess this morning is that Hillary is doing better, and that she might well surprise Obama here in Texas. My unofficial soundings this morning from some people who might know tend to confirm this feeling. Among other things, I think that a lot of Republicans who should know better are going to go vote for Hillary just to make trouble. I wonder if that hurts McCain, or if these people will wind up being protest voters who aren't quite ready to have McCain as their candidate yet ? I will examine all this further as time allows.

Is Hillary Quitting ?

Blake Dvorak, over at Real Clear Politics's "PM Line" links to a blog post by Jay Severin that reports a rumor that Hillary might quit on Friday.

Yes, yes, it's as thin as it sounds, as Mr. Severin is the first to admit: he calls it "rumor," not to mention "hearsay" and "third party," and candidly says he cannot verify it. But Mr. Severin says he trusts his source, and I must say although I don't necessarily believe it, I do not disbelieve it either.

If there's really something to this report, why might Hillary wait till Friday ? Why not just go ahead ? Perhaps she's waiting on some polling before the weekend, but she wants to make the decision early enough to avoid the last expensive media buy.

If the numbers are going south by the weekend, and it looks like Hillary's going to get hammered in Ohio and Texas, getting out looks like a good move. Things do not look good for her at present: Ohio is down a little, but her lead in Texas has evaporated -- the latest polls show Obama going ahead. Admittedly, his lead is within the margin of error, but there's no question that she's sinking.

I still think that the nomination is within reach for Hillary -- if she can eke-out bare wins in Texas and Ohio, and cajole, beg and politically threaten enough super-delegates into her corner. The delegate deficit, on paper, is not that huge. Mrs. Clinton speaks for a lot of voters, and she presumably has files full of years worth of information on super-delegates, not to mention longstanding ties and connections, through Bill, with many of them. If she gets Florida and Michigan back on the board (not a foregone conclusion) -- she's within striking distance. But she has to lawyer, palaver and maneuver to prevail -- the conditions she's laboring under simply aren't going to allow her to win this outright, unless Obama collapses this weekend.

But what does Hillary really gain, even if she wins the nomination ? A hopelessly divided party, and massive resentment from Obama disciples angry that she denied their Messiah his throne. I'm hoping she tries it, of course, but I see no way that this can end well for her.

If she turns aside now, and lets Obama have it, Mrs. Clinton can hope that McCain can burst St. Barack's bubble in November, and that she can say "I told you so" four years hence. If St. Barack wins election (probable), and his administration produces a truly memorable disaster (also probable), she can try to pick up the pieces later. In the meantime, she can rake-in thanks and praise from getting out of the way of the coronation.

I don't know that Mrs. Clinton is quitting. It's definitely not her MO to quit. But it's probably her wisest course.

William F. Buckley, Jr. (1925-2008)

I was staggered to learn this morning of the death of William F. Buckley, Jr., founder of National Review and modern American conservatism; sometime editor of the magazine. Mr. Buckley, ill with emphysema, passed on sometime last night while in his study -- a fitting ending-place for a man whose work contributed so much to American political and intellectual life.

I shall never forget first discovering his magazine in the late 1970's, during Jimmy Carter's era of malaise. America, and freedom, had been defeated in Vietnam; political discourse was dominated by the friends and fellow-travellers of the 60's and 70's protesters; and too many of our teachers and professors mouthed the noxious platitudes of the flag-burners; malnourished us on the foul nostrums of the Left.

Finding a powerful conservative voice who so eloquently articulated, promoted and advocated a different political path, one that upheld and proclaimed the greatness of the nation, was a great encouragement and comfort in those drab, wrongheaded, spiritless political and intellectual times. Mr. Buckley now rests with God, and is thereby the infinite gainer, but the rest of us miss him now, when the country and conservatism both need someone like him so very badly.

Obama-Edwards

I have this weird idea that the Democratic ticket is probably going to be Obama-Edwards. The weak spot in the Democratic array is going to be economically downscale white males, and Edwards, with his populist nostrums, might be of valuable assistance here. Not to mention he has good ties with the trial lawyers.

Tripping Up McCain

Huckabee is begging Texans to keep him in the race for the Republican nomination, the Ciudad El Jefe Comical (a/k/a the Houston Chronicle) reports. The only Republicans who will vote to keep the increasingly tiresome Huckabee in the race are those wanting President Obama or President Clinton come November.

Speaking of wanting the Democrat, the New York Times, after trying to trip up McCain with conservatives by endorsing him before the Florida primary, is now doing what it can to make trouble for McCain -- it has run a smear story this morning rehashing the decades old Keating Five scandal and insinuating that McCain had an affair with an attractive lady lobbyist. Both Senator McCain and the lobbyist deny the allegations. The interesting part is the alleged affair -- the piece doesn't come right out and say that McCain was sleeping with the lady, but the writers do all they can to drive the reader to that conclusion.

The story is based on a bunch of unnamed sources and advisors and a banking regulator who still thinks McCain got off too lightly in the Keating matter. Possibly the best comment on the piece is in the Real Clear Politics blog:

. . .Whatever one thinks of this NYT story, the McCain camp has two good defense tactics to use against it: 1.) The story is thinly sourced; and 2.) the NYT has not exactly upheld an unbiased standard of journalism in recent...decades. At least with this bomb, we know that the general election has certainly begun.

The McCain camp has vowed "war" with the Old Grey Tart. Presumably the McCain organization was ready for something like this, McCain's life has not in any sense been what one would call uninteresting. But at the most, the New York Times piece shows an obliviousness to appearances and a certain degree of conceit on the part of McCain, which is of a piece with the bull-in-the-china-shop personality he has that has driven the conservative big wigs through the roof. But if this is all the Times has in terms of sources and information, the cupboard is rather bare.

Apparently the story has been sitting around for awhile, at least since December. Jim Geraghty at National Review Online has the last word: "As far as we can tell, back in December, the article looked like an unfair, thinly-sourced hit piece on a possible Republican nominee; now it looks like an unfair, thinly-sourced hit piece on the likely Republican nominee." Conservative media appears to be rising to McCain's defense, one outlet reportedly calling an attack by the New York Times a "conservative badge of honor."

Fidel Quitting ?

Tom Hagen: Do you know how they're gonna come at ya ?

Michael Corleone: They're arranging a meeting in Brooklyn. Tessio's ground, where I'll be "safe."

Tom Hagen: I always thought it would've been Clemenza, not Tessio...

Michael Corleone: It's the smart move -- Tessio was always smarter. But I'm gonna wait -- after the baptism. I've decided to be Godfather to Connie's baby. And then I'll meet with Don Barzini -- and Tattaglia -- all of the heads of the Five Families...

Robert Duval as "Tom Hagen" and Al Pacino as "Michael Corleone" during the funeral of "Vito Corleone" (Marlon Brando) in The Godfather (1972) (screenplay by Mario Puzo; directed by Francis Ford Coppola).

Fidel Castro, dictator of Cuba, says that he will not seek a new term as "President" or commander of the Cuban armed forces (Comandante en Jefe) when his puppet National Assembly meets late this week. The text of Castro's letter is here.

Until the old bastard is safely dead and buried under whatever gargantuan and tasteless mausoleum the Cuban commies will put him in (who knows, maybe it will even be finished before the regime goes ?) -- he may be "resigned" but he will certainly not be gone. Godfathers don't get to quit anyway. Mr. Castro is First Secretary of the Communist Party, which is the only job that really matters, (save for possibly running the military) and it's not clear if Fidel has given up the party job too.

Mr. Castro, who is 81 years old, has been ill for some time and probably wants to secure his positions for Brother Raul, (at age 77, no spring chicken himself), who is Acting President, Acting First Secretary, Acting Jefe of the Armed Forces, yadda, yadda, yadda, besides being First Vice President. More significantly, he's Minister of the "Revolutionary Armed Forces." I do wonder, though, if Raul and the Minister of the Interior, Corps General Abelardo Colome Ibarra, are on the same page ? General Colome runs the police. If Raul's about his business, he has the arrest lists all drawn up, if not, he won't last very long anyway.

I come back to this question of how much a resignation really means ? Retired Godfathers are so inconvenient. They still have more than a little influence, so they're not quite retired. At the same time, the younger people still active can see that the sick old Godfather is soon to be off for the Great Party meeting in the sky. The old man's influence declines daily, as people try to make their preparations for the future -- but he can still stick his nose into things. As I say, very inconvenient. Who guards Fidel ? Who do the doctors work for ? Who do they obey ? It's rough being an old dictator (Fidel) or the not-quite-new dictator (Raul). Sleep well, gentlemen.

Really Proud of America At Last

Michelle Obama, age 44, speaking today at a St. Barack of Obama campaign rally in Wisconsin:

. . .What we have learned over this year is that hope is making a comeback. It is making a comeback and let me tell you something, For the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change. I have been desperate to see our country moving in that direction and just not feeling so alone in my frustration and disappointment. I have seen people who are hungry to be unified around some basic common issues. It has made me proud.

Beg pardon, ma'am, but why is hunger for change and hunger to be "unified around some basic common issues" necessarily a reason for pride ? Should not the emotion of "pride" require more from us than vague, unspecified yearings for "change" and evocations of "hope?" Back in 1933 in Germany, a whole lot of people were "hungry for change" and "hungry to be unified around some basic common issues." I'm sure you'd agree that in that case, and in many others we could think of, simply being hungry for change and wanting desperately to be united around basic values is thin, even poisonous gruel upon which to feed pride.

Personally, I think the "hunger for change" and the desire to be "unified around some basic common issues" can be downright dangerous. Whether what you say you're proud of is good depends on what the "basic common issues" are, and what kind of change the hungry are hungering for. Your husband has the most liberal voting record in the whole United States Senate, and given some of the things that the ascendent liberal wing of your party stands for today -- such as withdrawal from Iraq at any price, looks to me like the kind of change your friends are hungry for falls into the foolhardy and dangerous column.

But more to the point, why is the present the first time in your adult lifetime that you've really been proud of your country ? Granted, you were five years old at the time Neil Armstrong walked on the moon (tell me what other place has done that !), but I find it more than passing strange that an American could not be proud as punch of her country every day, every hour of her life, simply because it's America, and her country. We don't need the "hunger for change" to be proud of our country. No, America is not perfect, by any means, but it has struggled longer and harder for justice and freedom for all of its people, and to bring justice and freedom to others, than any nation in the whole history of the world.

How can we not be proud of the nation that freed Kuwait and Afghanistan and liberated Baghdad ? How can we not be proud of a country that gives so many the right to be so horribly, tragically wrong about almost everything, and to shout it from the rooftops ad nauseum ? How can we not be proud of a nation that rescued Europe twice from bondage and whose soldiers and navies stand guard all over the world defending the planet's liberty and commerce. There are a universe of other reasons to be proud of our country, and not the least of the reasons to be proud of this country is the fact that Barack Obama, son of a Kenyan, can sit in the United States Senate.

So Mrs. Obama's a political novice, and she's managed to utter a stray paragraph at a rally just crying to be pounced on. No doubt her defenders are going to say exactly this, and that's fine, they have a right -- thanks to the work and blood of generations of Americans -- to think what they think, and so does Mrs. Obama. But for me, that's almost beside the point. I'm proud of America for all of the reasons listed, but I'm also proud of America, and have been since the day I was born -- because it's ours, it's our country. That's enough for me. Maybe Mrs. Obama gets that, and maybe not. Maybe the Democrats get it and maybe they don't. But I bet you your bottom dollar that John McCain does.

Hat tip: Drudge.

Kosovo Independence

As expected, the wayward Serbian province of Kosovo declared independence yesterday. A majority of its citizens wanted independence, as opposed to some kind of tie with Serbia; the place has a defined territory; a government more or less in possession; and some ability to defend itself. In consequence, the US government, quite properly, recognized the new state this morning, and at least some states (the Germans the British and others), may be expected to follow suit.

Lots of people and countries are not happy: Kosovo's Serb minority, mostly living on the new country’s border with Serbia, is definitely not happy. The Russians, the Spanish, the Greeks, and other states with restive minorities are not happy either. The Russians and the Serbs are going to demand something to assuage their unhappiness: I hope that the Kosovars will have the good sense to be negotiable on borders. If the Serbs on their borders want to be in Serbia, by all means let them.

I truly wish, however, that the US had not gotten involved with Kosovo’s problems, or in the breakup of Yugoslavia period. This was really a problem for the European powers (that is, the Germans, French, Italians and British) to deal with. The Clinton administration’s relentless determination to stick America’s nose into the Balkans has brought us nothing but entanglement in a region of little direct strategic significance to the US, and needless quarrels with powers such as Russia with which we already have issues enough.

That said, once America became involved, I think that the EU/State Department people who have been trying to force the Balkan secessionists to set up secular, ethnically diverse states in the Balkans are idiots who need their heads examined. The recent bloody history of ethnic cleansing in the Balkans should persuade even the most obstinate PC lawyer-type that multi-culti states in the Balkans are a fantasy. The only people who care about imposing such unworkable settlements on people who hate each other are the international bureaucrats, the professors and the lawyers. Had the US and EU (once they determined to interfere) aimed for partition from the outset, both in Kosovo and in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and helped buy-out and resettle people who lived on the wrong sides of borders, the whole process of undoing Yugoslavia might have been a good deal less bloody and expensive for everyone involved.

I am a little dubious about a new Muslim state in Europe, but only a little. A Muslim country in Europe is not exactly a new condition: there are others, and besides, the Ottoman Empire was in Europe for centuries, and the breakup of this entity (to the immediate benefit of a number of Christian kingdoms) contributed a good deal to the ruination of Europe and Christian civilization generally. There is no reason a new Muslim state in Europe has to be impermissible per se.

Kosovo is now an accomplished fact, and we have rightly recognized it. Good luck to the Kosavars, and may they have the good sense to have good manners in celebrating their good fortune.

Washington's Birthday

Today is the official celebration of George Washington's Birthday (the actual anniversary is 22 February). Despite the "President's Day" moniker popularly used, which also appears in the statute books of my own State, I prefer the older name for the holiday, which is also the name recognized in the Federal statute book (5 U.S.C. § 6103(a)). Our first President, still among the greatest, deserves so much more recognition than he now gets.

Leaving aside his military service, Washington's greatest bequest to us was his determination that our republic not be a banana republic: that it become a peaceful instrument of the law, governed by institutions administered by sober-minded men; and not just another creature to be ruled by a great leader, born out of partisan excitement and mob rule. Of course, we are all too aware that partisan excitement exists, abetted and inflamed by technologies that Washington and the founders could not forsee. So far, however, the tumult and the shouting of partisans and the factious have been successfully channeled and moderated by the laws and institutions the founders made and that Washington protected and helped to grow.

Virtually every day of his adult life, George Washington put his country over himself, and for this reason, he could be trusted with power. Probably the most important thing Washington ever did was to leave the Presidency at the expiration of his term. We owe Washington the universal expectation that our Presidents will regularly leave office; peacefully handing over the office to their successor of whatever party, in a regular manner. Few other states can boast such a record.

Washington deserves his own holiday, and perhaps someday we will remember what we owe him, and give him his day back.

The Ultimate Showdown ?

Over at Slate, Jeff Greenfield argues that Wisconsin should be the Ultimate Showdown for Hilla and St. Barack.

Maybe, but I'm inclined to think it's my own home State of Texas...With even decent luck, the battle will "rage... on for a century."

Picking Up a Crown

El Jefe has been busy with work and other matters this week, so time to post has of necessity been limited. However, today is an interesting historical anniversary, hence this post.

Today in 1689, the British "Glorious Revolution" culminated in the proclamation of the stadtholder of the Dutch Republic, William, Prince of Orange and his wife Mary as King and Queen of England (Scotland would come later).

Proclamation of the new monarch was the result of William’s successful invasion of Britain in 1688 with a Dutch army – following an invitation from Protestant supporters in Britain. The Catholic King, James II, (William's father in law), deserted by his army and faithless adherents, fled the country along with his Queen and heir (“James III” or “the Old Pretender”) for France. Louis XIV gave King James, for his residence, the Château de Saint-Germain-en-Laye (west of Paris) -- Louis XIV's own birthplace -- where, after a futile campaign to defend his Irish crown from William --King James spent most of the rest of his days. For the king, residing at this place possibly made up a little for having to go on living after losing three kingdoms.

William must have been quite a man: on paper his armies should have been insufficient and his fleet was no more than barely equal to King James’s. But William and his admirals evaded the Royal Navy; got William and his army (18,000 infantry, 3,000 cavalry) down and across the Channel and ashore intact (no foreigner since William the Conqueror has managed that); engineered the defection of James’s generals and politicians; intimidated the legitimate king out of the country without much shooting; filched himself King James’s crown; and, found his home country a new and powerful ally against France. Splendid work.

Still, I’ve never been much of an admirer of King William: although he's interesting. I’m not Catholic, but I confess to having more than a little sympathy for King James, incompetent monarch that he was. A foolish king certainly, but he was defending his birthright and (as he saw it) his country as best he knew how against a foreign invader and usurper, and he perhaps would have succeeded in keeping his throne had he been less passive, more ruthless with dissidents and wavering nobles, and more interested in fighting than trying to negotiate.

Not much relevance to anything now, of course, but, like The Godfather, an interesting story.

Obama Likes Che ?

Newsbusters has a photograph and link to a video (from Fox 26 Houston) that appear to show the St. Barack of Obama campaign office located right here in Ciudad El Jefe -- with a Cuban flag defaced with a picture of Che Guevara (a famous communist thug and terrorist) on it. (Another blog's description, with a bigger pic, here).

St. Barack is, you will remember, the candidate who does not like wearing American flag pins.

No doubt some phone calls will be (or have been) made, and the Che flag will be put away. But it is interesting.

Hat tip: National Review Online.

One Traitor Less ?

"There is a rumor that Adam Gadahn, (a/k/a "Azzām al-Amrīki" or "Azzam the American") the American traitor who makes pro-al Qaeda tapes taunting his countrymen with threats of destruction -- was killed 29 January in the same airstrike on a North Waziristan Pakistan safehouse that got al Qaeda boss Abu Laith al Libi. Probably this is too good to be true: a discussion of the evidence for and against the good news is available at The Long War Journal.

We can hope the report is true and Mr. Gadahn is in Hell, but no matter if not, it will be true soon enough.

Hat tip: Little Green Footballs.

Romney Out ?

Strong rumor this morning is that Romney is out. . .

Undersea Cable Trouble

There have been a series of communications disruptions involving breaks in undersea cables that carry internet communications for parts of Asia and Africa, including Iran and Egypt. This is all most interesting, and I haven't a clue whether this is all an extremely odd set of coincidences or whether something, er, more directed, might be going on.

I might comment on this when I have time to look into it more thoroughly, but in the meantime, Wretchard's discussion over at Belmont Club, the associated links and the comments to his posts are a very good starting place.

Problems with the world's undeseas communications network serve to remind us and many others of an important strategic fact of life, which Wretchard explains very well:

This map of the world underwater cable network reveals one of the least appreciated aspects of seapower. The United States Navy, by its control of the oceans, has the potential ability to impose an information blockade on any country on earth in time of war and force any belligerent into using communications channels which it physically controls. Air Force control of outer space means that this blockade ability also extends to the use of communications satellites.

Americans perhaps forget this, but lots of other people, most assuredly, do not.

Super (Tsunami) Tuesday

I'm not even attempting to prognosticate this one: too many states, too many variables. If you're looking for informed predictions, try Blogging Caesar (see blogroll), or some of the links at Real Clear Politics (also in blogroll). I was hoping McCain could put it away today -- still hoping, but not as sure about that as I was: the talk radio crowd is making this harder than it has to be. We'll still get there in the end, but every day that goes on affects the Republicans' chances in the general election adversely.

As to the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton appears to be in some trouble. Personally, I'm hoping that fight goes on for a good while yet, but we'll see.

Super Bowl XLII

How did Eli Manning get out of that sack ? How did he make that pass ? How did David Tyree manage to catch it ? No question, Manning's Houdini move, at 3rd down and five yards to go with under two minutes was one of the greatest Super Bowl plays ever.

The New York Giants sure earned their rings last night. Too bad for New England (a truly great team), and their 19-0 gone-a-glimmering, but they were beaten fair and square. As somebody who remembers the old Miami Dolphins and 1972. . .that's not all bad.

Opportunity is Knocking

Republicans need to decide, now, whether they want to actually win the fast-approaching Presidential election, despite having an arguably flawed standard-bearer; or, alternatively, whether they want to act like Democrats and liberals: congratulating themselves for having an ideologically pure candidate who loses despite the purity of his ideological views.

Late last year, the Republicans looked like sure losers this election cycle. But, despite the lamentations of some conservatives, things are actually looking up in terms of stopping the lefties who would ruin our war effort; saddle our children with even more astronomical debt burdens; and shackle us with an even more formidable regulatory state. Iraq is doing better, and the assassination of Mrs. Bhutto has reminded everyone that the world is not ready to sing Kumbaya, no matter how much our lefty loons may want to. The Republicans have a window of opportunity, to borrow Reagan's phrase -- which they ought to be rarin' to jump through. But the only person the window's open for in this election cycle is McCain.

What is it with Democrats ? They should OWN this election, completely. Just like the elections of 2000. The Democrats should have owned that one too -- it was pre 9/11 and nothing was happening in the world, and the economy was doing relatively well. However, the Democrats threw away their chances by nominating a robotized block of wood who probably couldn't successfully promote a free wine and beer fiesta.

The 2000 election shouldn't have even been close: the sitting Vice President in a good economy against the nationally inexperienced son of unpopular George, derided by Ann Richards as "poor George, born with a silver spoon in his mouth"? The Democrats should have cleaned the floor with George W. Bush, but they were so inept and clumsy it came down to dimpled chads and lawyers, and by God's grace, they came off second-best.

Oh, but they could top that. In 2004, they went on to give us Plastic Man, who was for it before he was against it -- who managed to lose it all, not entirely thanks to W's brilliant "Strategery," and despite a deeply unpopular war.

But now, we have conservatives acting like Democrats; conservatives who, despite the failure of efforts to stop John McCain so far -- are demanding that we all "rally to Romney" -- who appears to be a boring bust of a candidate so far, because he is supposedly more conservative than the less than ideologically pure John McCain.

Why are conservatives upset ? Things are moving our way, because the inept Democrats are just the stupid party that just keeps on giving. Yes, the Democrats again have a death wish this election cycle -- which figures -- after all they're the party that offers abortion as a holy sacrament. On the one hand, they're offering the country a candidate whose main qualification for high office is that she stayed loyally married to her President husband no matter what he did to her; and said husband discharged his obligation by helping Hillary secure a Senate seat. Now, as Charles Krauthammer so trenchantly points out -- Bill seeks to redeem his own lackluster, wasted eight years by securing Hillary the White House.

As an aside, I'll say one thing for Hillary. She has an eye for the main chance; and clearly sacrifices whatever she must to reach the objective. Coldness is an asset for a ruler (this is what she aspires to be) and she has that in spades. But the Republicans can take Hillary.

Then we have St. Barack of Obama -- a complete media creation -- untried, untested with no experience and an almost perfect ultra-liberal voting record who, despite this, promises to unite the country. I suppose all of us conservatives are expected to just surrender and be united.

Far from being broken. . .conservatives now have an opportunity. The Democrats are on the verge of making another giant mistake -- they are locked into one now no matter what they do. Either they restore the Clintons, with all the attendant baggage that brings -- or they go with Obama, untried, untested, inexperienced and the most liberal -- by miles and miles -- person to ever be nominated for anything. They can take him too.

The zany Democrats are offering the Republicans yet another political jackpot -- just moving themselves into position for another memorable pasting. All that Republicans have to do is just reach for and seize the chance, by nominating John McCain as our Presidential standard-bearer -- a man who is a certified war hero, that the Democratic slime machine cannot touch, cannot even dent; who appeals to independents -- and who, if one reads the polls can -- unlike Mitt Romney -- actually win an election.

Somebody tell me what's wrong with winning ? So McCain's not Reagan. Nobody is, nobody could be, and we have to stop expecting somebody to live the 80's over. Reagan's dead, and not even Reagan, were he alive today, could produce victory for a crowd of spiteful children who will drown us all because they loathe the man who is offering our country a life preserver.

Yes, by all means, let us fight McCain, on matters we need to fight him on. We can quibble about immigration, campaign finance, judicial appointments and anything we like later. But one battle at a time. Conservatives have no reason to be unhappy or hurting now. Lets take the hurting to the lefties and argue later. Lets beat the Democrats first.