tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8632546.post6175927395224332631..comments2023-10-05T04:00:39.089-05:00Comments on Kingdom of Chaos: Opportunity is KnockingEl Jefe Maximohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14661511063910659377noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8632546.post-69078025229547877772008-02-04T16:22:00.000-06:002008-02-04T16:22:00.000-06:00Rhod,There is something in what you're saying. . ....Rhod,<BR/><BR/>There is something in what you're saying. . .but I'm going to have to think about it a bit. Sounds like one of those sessions possibly requiring a late night and some wine.<BR/><BR/>I don't write Obama off, not for a minute. I just question his ability as the candidate to do much better than Gore or Kerry. The Republicans, however, might well do worse. . .El Jefe Maximohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14661511063910659377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8632546.post-86654792685181338612008-02-04T16:13:00.000-06:002008-02-04T16:13:00.000-06:00Always liked your commentary over at DC's, EJM, bu...Always liked your commentary over at DC's, EJM, but I'm having trouble with your post and reply to oy.<BR/><BR/>We've know each other for a while; you know I'm not a suicidal conservative; perhaps more libertarian than conservative, even though my first campaign was for Goldwater and I've voted conserv/Repub ever since.<BR/><BR/>It's seemed clear to me for several years that the enlightened conservatism of Buckley, Kirkpatrick and many others went into decline when we permitted the sound studio hacks on talk radio to speak for us.<BR/><BR/>Thirty years of building, brick by brick, a coherent conservative philsophy (conservatism isn't an ideology) has been swept away in less than ten by Hannity and, to a lesser degree Limbaugh, and replaced with a type of superman utilitarianism that has virtually no practical appeal to the overwhelming majority of middle-class Americans. <BR/><BR/>The "pursuit of excellence", small government, low taxes, all the popular conservative hack boilerplate has substituted itself for the single ideas of personal liberty and rejection of the tyranny of the administrative state as a FIRST principle. It's simply alienated people and identified conservative thought with the controversial celebrities who've formulated these cliches. <BR/><BR/>Bush also had a great deal to do with the attenutation of conservative ideas, because he had no interest in us, and like McCain, is frequently openly hostile and exploitative of conservatives. McCain is not our friend, and the quibbling you mentioned on the primary issues is not quibbling, but of real and immediate importance.<BR/><BR/>Americans seem to be in one of their periodic romantic phases, when people like Obama and McCain are simply vessels for the escapist urges of the ideologically rootless and alienated people we've become.<BR/><BR/>I wouldn't write Obama off so easily. He, and all liberals, minister to wish fulfillment and the fantasy life of the comfortable. <BR/><BR/>RhodAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8632546.post-49140858247892620192008-02-02T11:29:00.000-06:002008-02-02T11:29:00.000-06:00El JefeLet us consider the overall structure of US...El Jefe<BR/><BR/>Let us consider the overall structure of US elections for the past 20 or so years.<BR/><BR/>On a nation wide basis, if you have “combined election” not just the president but all congressman, governors state legislature or even dog catcher. The republican candidates have a guaranteed 45% and the Democrats have a guaranteed 45%. There is substantial variation locally but that the national picture. What the 10% in the middle decide is who wins.<BR/><BR/>Both McCain and Romney are much closer to that 10% than either Clinton or Obama. As you point out this an opportunity. The big advantage the McCain has is that the 10% know this. In an election where the main media is much closer to Clinton and Obama than the 10% it will be much easier to remind the 10% of McCain than convince them about Romney.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I have some reservation about McCain, and Romney too, but on the worst day is better than either Clinton or Obama on the best day.<BR/><BR/><BR/>It will be an uphill fight but Mc Cain can win.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>PS: I fixed that bad link you clicked on my blog.hank_F_Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09851295792702162861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8632546.post-38656741033547162752008-02-02T11:03:00.000-06:002008-02-02T11:03:00.000-06:00Quite possibly you are correct, but much depends o...Quite possibly you are correct, but much depends on events. We don't know what the economy or the war will do, and there is much instability elsewhere, Iran and North Korea for starters.<BR/><BR/>Also, Nixon was an incumbent, and seen as safer than an experiment with the darling of the unwashed Children's Crusade. The fact that he was the incumbent also tended to keep dissidents in his own camp in hand. <BR/><BR/>Moreover, this year, there is a good deal of dissatisfation with Bush, and the Republican candidate will necessarily inherit much of that ire. On the Democratic side, I also think Obama is much more a natural campaigner than McGovern was, even if he is more of a novice. <BR/><BR/>In general you are correct though. Obama would be an extreme liberal,with very unsavory extreme liberal supporters. He is far more left than Gore or Kerry ever were, and I do not see how he can obtain much more support in the country than they did, except to the degree that he can masquerade as a moderate. <BR/><BR/>From a narrow, technical point of view, the Democrats could best improve on their 2000, 2004 performances by nominating somebody a little more centrist than Gore or Kerry. Recall that Clinton was elected running more to the center than either of his successors as candidates. I think Hillary could certainly play this role better than Obama. The great weakness of the Democratic Party is that its nutty left wing is just too strong. This is a function (1) of the even more pronounced northeastern dominance of the party than in 1992; and, (2) the increased importance of the chattering class, bi-coastal upper middle class Democrats at the expense of the union bosses. The McGovern faction now controls everything, and means that the Democrats are not a trustworthy alternative to even the most wacko Republicans.<BR/><BR/>In the event Obama is the candidate, it will be the task of Republicans to spoil any attempt by him to masquerade as a moderate or a unifier; keep their own coalition together (somehow), and cut into Obama's Hispanic support (in the west), and lower middle class support (in the northeast). <BR/><BR/>I think that, to win, the Democrats are going to have to have help from a third party challenger, and this strong possibility (the Paul crowd plus the irreconcilables who cannot stomach McCain), and this possibility concerns me more than anything else.El Jefe Maximohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14661511063910659377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8632546.post-84150407344282938062008-02-02T10:09:00.000-06:002008-02-02T10:09:00.000-06:00I have the distinct impression that, if Obama is c...I have the distinct impression that, if Obama is chosen as the candidate, the race will likely remind that of 1972: a Republican "centrist" against the ultra-liberal "voice of the young people". Obama is very similar to McGovern and I do not sense Democrats realize their great mistake.<BR/><BR/>What do you think?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com