Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Indiana and North Carolina

The two biggest primaries left on the Democratic side are today. I think Hillary wins Indiana, probably 53-47 percent.
I think Obama beats Hillary in North Carolina, but I'm going to say that it's much, much closer than predicted. Say 51-49 percent. I'm thinking that all the churning and campaigning that Bill and others have been doing in parts of North Carolina off the beaten track (the "Bubba Tour") are going to help, and I think Obama has been hurt by the Wright business, not least among his own supporters. But Hillary still should fall a little short. See Blogging Caesar for his, and for other predictions.
I feel less certain about North Carolina than anything so far this year. The bloom is definitely off Obama's rose, and Hillary looks better than she has, but is it too late to matter ? Who is coming to the polls today ?
Of course, if El Jefe's predictions are sub-nominal, there will be an official investigation, which will be full, complete, fair, transparent and completely exonerate El Jefe and will find those responsible. Heads will roll.
ADDENDUM: (noon). Have a look at Jay Cost's "Reflections on the Democratic Race" over at the Horse Race Blog on Real Clear Politics. Mr. Cost analyzes wins by Hillary, wins by Obama, and the performance of battleground states such as Ohio in prior elections, and concludes that a victory by Obama in the general election would need to look "different than anything a Democrat has ever put together" (emphasis in original). Also, Mr. Cost correctly points out the real reason for superdelegate reluctance to take another look at Hillary: her ". . .pat to the nomination is necessarily 'dirty.' She must out-muscle Obama at the convention. That's the only way." Read the whole thing.
ADDENDUM NUMERO TWO-O (12:45 p.m.). Drudge says the Hilla-ites are expecting a massive defeat in NC. . . Could be. Could be they're playing expectations games, too.


Vince said...

Well it looks like you were playing the expectation game while the drudge report got it correct.

El Jefe Maximo said...

I don't know about expectations...but I definitely got it wrong.

Gee, did I say that ?

Dcort said...

What happened to your predictions? They seem a "little" off today. Must be losing your touch.

A VERY happy Obama Supporter

El Jefe Maximo said...

Well Dcort, you're certainly right that I was wrong, and you are definitely entitled, like all Obama supporters, to be happy today.

Enjoy now, becuase maybe just possibly, come November, things will assume a somewhat different aspect.