Monday, April 21, 2008

Pennsylvania Prediction

I think Hillary wins Pennsylvania, possibly by a larger margin than predicted.
Hillary's going to draw a lot of rural voters who normally go Republican. Meanwhile, Obama takes Philadelphia with its big black vote by a huge margin. The decision is probably with the Philadelphia suburbs.
Real Clear Politics puts Hilla ahead, on average, by 5.4 points, but deciders in the day before the election have tended to break for her. Finally, St. Barack appears to have gotten a little bit of dirt on his halo over the past week or so. (Depend on it: we haven't heard the last of William Ayers).
The big media and the left wing glitterati have tried, and so far failed, to bury Hillary, but just because they're mostly disgusting and crazy, they're not always wrong: and they're probably right about the long term picture for the Democratic nomination. But not yet. My horseback guess is that, in general, Hillary looks better than she did last week, but is still fairly toasted whatever happens with Pennsylvania. The 24 bizillion dollar questions are: how much money has she got, and what do her fundraising numbers look like ?
Meanwhile, a "top insider" in the Hilla camp has given Drudge a red-siren exclusive that purports to show "internals" -- that is, inside campaign polling -- showing Senator Clinton as up by 11 points, propelled by a "strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters." This is interesting, it may even be true, but it sounds a lot like a strategic leak to build excitement by using the media to make news and turn out the Hilla voters.
Anyway, I think Hillary wins, but maybe not as big as Drudge's sources claim. Say, Hillary takes Pennsylvania by 8 points.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

GOP ultimately loses--

McCain is a LIBERAL Republican!!!

If he wins, conservatism is dead.