Tuesday, January 8, 2008

New Hampshire

Weather in New Hampshire is in the high 30's, low 40's, some clouds but no rain.
I think that McCain will win the Republican primary, but it will be a real squeaker. Real Clear Politics's poll averages seem to show a modest Romney rebound in the last day or two, but I agree with Blogging Caesar that it is too little, too late. I think Huckabee may well do better than anticipated. Romney is a close second, followed by Huckabee and the rest.
This is a must win, I think, for McCain. The game for Republicans at this point is to consolidate the alternatives to Huckabee and Giuliani. After today, I hope that Fred Thompson leaves the race and endorces McCain. If McCain does not win tonight, I think the Republican Party is lost: the insiders will do all they can to stop Huckabee, and with the conservatives divided, the only horse left will be Giuliani. . .
As for the Democrats, Obama looks set to win this, but I think he'll do better than Blogging Caesar indicates. He's now the established alternative to Hillary -- as well as the front runner and now everybody wants on the bandwagon. St. Barack of Obama, and the effect he has on the Left -- reminds me not so much of John F. Kennedy (to whom Obama has been compared) -- but to another Kennedy -- Robert. In any case, a vote for Edwards is pretty much a wasted vote, and I think more Edwards support might be coming his way.
The implosion of Hillary Clinton's campaign has just been astonishing. If this sticks, and Obama is indeed the nominee, more books and articles will be written about Hillary's crash and Obama's rise than on any other subject. Wretchard at Belmont Club makes the fascinating argument that Mrs. Clinton has been the latest victim of the perfect internet storm:
. . .The events that overtook Hillary Clinton during the Iowa primaries were no less dramatic and exhibited many of the same characteristics. Anyone who was watching the memetic indicators closely could see something huge was happening. The News Futures Prediction Market tracked the trades that Hillary would win the 2008 Democratic nomination. She had been favored for months. Her stock actually rose throughout late 2007. And then, all of sudden the bottom fell out. Here's the chart of Hillary's prospects, which fell from 60 to 34% in a few short days. . .
See Wretchard's piece for the very arresting charts, and by all means read the whole post. As for Mrs. Clinton, I don't envy whoever is sitting on the couch with her watching returns this evening. Brrrr !

2 comments:

louielouie said...

....and in the world of speculation, if the internet were established and had been around in 1992.........who would have been elected president?

El Jefe Maximo said...

LL, I'm surprised at you, that's a no-brainer ! ALGORE of course, because he invented the damn thing. . . ;-)