Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida Prediction

Okay, here goes. I've really hesitated over this one, but I think that John McCain is going to win tomorrow's Florida primary, but it'll be a real squeaker. Romney will be a close second, trailed by Giuliani (curtains for him), and Huckabee.
Last week, this race looked like a squeaker also, but in Romney's favor. I think that the recent endorsements, by Governor Crist and some newspapers; combined with the idea that Republicans might just have a chance, after all, this year -- will be just barely enough to put Senator McCain over the top. Speaking of endorsements, perhaps the rather transparent New York Times endorsement/political kiss-of-death will have a positive effect for McCain, possibly not quite what its makers intended.
If El Jefe's prediction works out to be, well, suboptimal, the usual suspects will be rounded up at once.
ADDENDUM: (29 Jan.). Other predictions from around the blogosphere:
Label Free Zone says McCain wins -- that the Crist and Martinez endorsements are possibly decisive.
NB Politico also gives it to McCain (34 percent) to Romney's 27 percent.
Political Tipster says Romney -- by about a seventh of a percentage point.
California Yankee gives it to McCain.
These folks all have percentage breakdowns. They're braver folks than I, Gunga Din. Since it's winner take all in Florida, it doesn't much matter: there's a winner, and everybody else.


H said...

You win El Jefe.

Now that it's down to McCain and Romney, *barf*, I have to go with McCain. I really don't want to because he's just so wrong on so many issues, but I don't think that Romney can win in November. It might be over for him though. He's been getting hammered over his denial of quotes on the economy, Romney, and Alito.

El Jefe Maximo said...

May be H. . .it's sure coming down to the wire in Fla. Anybody sneezing could throw it either way. Romney's got the organization and the money (and a LOT of ads), plus the Conservative bigs. McCain's got the local establishment, as well as being more "realistic" in the sense of being a winnner come November. No question it's going to be close today.

H said...

I'm really curious how many early voters went for Rudy when he was the only one campaigning there or for Fred before he dropped out. I wonder how many people are left to vote today.

You're right about Romney having the conservative bigs. It drives me nuts listening to some of them now. But then Michael Medved has gone off the deep end supporting McCain too. I'm just sick with the Republican party right now.

El Jefe Maximo said...

The horse-race side of politics does bring out the worst in a lot of people, possibly including me.

We can be as sick as we like about it, and about the direction of the Party. But come 20 January next, somebody will have won the election that's coming. I see zero, zip, nada upside to Obama, Clinton, Edwards or anybody or anything the Democratic Party is likely to put up; and worlds of bad news coming from a Left wing victory.

The game may be disgusting. But we can't get out of playing. There is nothing for it but to take Al Davis's advice and "Just Win, Baby."