No, I really don't think so, despite recent signs of life for Republicans, and articles like this. I think the Democrats could nominate a mummy and elect him (or her) President at this point. Come to think of it, a mummy would be better than any of their declared candidates so far.
But what if they are too confident ? No, I don't believe it either, but wouldn't it be such fun to watch the resulting tizzy ? Apoplexy of the Great and Good: a whole continent of liberals going "waaaaaahhhh !"
And no Bush to blame it all on. . .