Thursday, June 14, 2007

The Two State Solution. . .

It looks like Palestinian terrorist organization/political party Hamas is in control of most of the Gaza Strip, for whatever control of miles of rubble might be worth.
Fatah's still hanging on in the West Bank. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, meanwhile, has issued a "Presidential decree" firing the Hamas "government," reports the Jerusalem Post. Mr. Abbas also wants an international force sent to Gaza to restore law and order. Translation: Mr. Abbas ain't got the soldiers or the money and wants somebody else to fight his civil war.
With Fatah sitting in the West Bank, and Hamas squatting in Gaza, it looks like the Palestinians have their "two state solution."


louielouie said...

oh crap........
i started reading this essay thinking EJM I was commenting on the sapranos.
you know.
a couple of crime syndicates.
people going around wacking others for no reason.........oh wait.......the sapranos always have a reason........hamass doesn't need one.
i have heard others opine that the reason Arik ran the jooos out of gaza was to let the world see what kind of state the pallys would make for themselves. that may very well have been the reason but the fact of the matter is "these people" don't care what face they show the world. so long as they have ammo for their AK-47 and an adequate stock of RPG rounds they are happy. these people are the most subsidized, in fact their very existence depends on subsidies, culture in history. if the funding stops, just blame the jooos.

El Jefe Maximo said...

I'm not sure I wasn't talking about the Sopranos. Hamas and Fatah are just having a gang war.

Sooner or later the gangs will come to an accomodation of some kind...maybe it's happening already. You'll notice that Chairman or President or Whatever he Calls Himself Abbas didn't dissolve the Palestinian "government" or call for peacekeepers till Hamas had won in Gaza.

Now that Hamas has safely won -- Abbas can safely dissolve the "government," which will let the Euros and US and the other dummies give aid to his side (b/c unlike Hamas they're "partners for peace"). Looks like the Euros the US and Israel are moving to do this, including the Israelis freeing-up the tax receipts they collect. This whole thing is a big win for Fatah -- which is now in the money again.

You see, Abbas couldn't kick Hamas out of government till Hamas won in Gaza, because if the Fatah-controlled PA had even theoretical responsibility for Gaza, aid and money might get to Gaza, and that could help his rivals in Hamas.

Now Abbas's making a quasi-deal with Hamas -- a two state solution. Gaza for Hamas, West Bank for Fatah. I think Abbas is sure the Israelis will help him keep Hamas on the West Bank pinned down. Abbas thinks the joke is on Hamas, because Gaza will now be starved and blockaded -- they won't get the aid and taxes that's going to go to Fatah, the "partner for peace."

The very minute that Hamas reverts to type and starts harassing the Israelis, the Israelis will immediately cut off the gas, water and electricity to Gaza, and lean on Egypt (which has no interest in a Hamas-run state making a go of it) to close its borders, and then Hamas rots.

The Israelis are letting this happen. With no settlements or reasonable people to talk to in Gaza, the whole place can be a free-fire zone if the Hamas boys don't behave.

So I think they believe...but I doubt it will work out so neatly.

3:04 PM

hank_F_M said...

In a way it simplifies things.

There is only one party in Gaza one can talk to and no one wants to talk to them on any sort of terms Hamas will find acceptable. So either the obligations of running the place (and/or the opportunity of robbing it blind) force Hamas to reach low key arrangements that allow it to function without launching attacks on Israel, or it gets isolated and rots, or it's attacks on Israel get too annoying and Gaza damaged to the point that it is isolated and rots. As long as Israel keeps enough common sense not to reoccupy it.

I suspect that Hamas will try a similar coup on the West Bank. Abasses real plan at this point might be transfering money to swiss banks and keeping his jet available.

El Jefe Maximo said...

Maybe Hank, but I really wonder if Fatah isn't the winner here. Yeah, Hamas might try something on the West Bank, but now Abbas has the resources to buy it down (he's got money again). If you're Abbas, who cares about Gaza if the aid and taxes are turned back on and you have a hunting license from the Quartet powers and the Israelis to slam Hamas and all your other opponents ?

Moreover, Abbas has another new asset: a cadre of goons just pushed out of Gaza all probably eager to help put some Hamas in the hurt locker (and the goons have to back him -- he has the power base in the West Bank, they just lost theirs).

Finally, I think the Israelis will help Abbas under the table even more than they do already. From the outside, it looks like the Israeli informant/police network is a lot better and more effective in the West Bank than in Gaza.

louielouie said...

the one detail in EJM I arguement i'm skeptical of, is the rotting part regarding hamass.
as gaza will henceforth be known as hamasstan, turned into an islamist fundementalist state (read as terrorist training ground) the money from the stop-n-go clerk will begin flowing shortly. just as long as hamass continues to fire little kates into Sderot. the money will continue to flow to hyena.