Monday, March 6, 2006

The Farce Begins

The AP tells us today that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General, Mr. Mohamed ElBaradei is expressing “cautious optimism” today on the chances of reaching agreement with Iran to “defuse concerns” about Iranian nuclear plans, and make United Dictators (UN) Security Council action “unnecessary.”

Yeah, I’ll bet.

The Heir, all of ten years old, could tell you how this is going to play out. Lots of late night meetings and paper shuffling by Mr. ElBaradei and his friends, resulting in huffing and puffing at the Circus on Turtle Bay (a.k.a. UN Headquarters) and the miraculous discovery by Mr. ElBaradei and the IAEA that Iran is “moving towards substantial compliance” with UN requirements and further action will probably be unnecessary.

Then we’ll read the fine print, and discover that, in exchange for trillions upon billions of dollars of every kind of aid you can imagine, Iran has given us (if you want to be polite), a very definite “maybe” on halting progress towards a nuclear weapon. If you want to be honest, the Iranians will be found to have said: “drop dead infidels,” in diplomatese of course.

The world’s great and good will be “horrified” and “shocked” when the US expresses its dissatisfaction with the concept of paying for its own humiliation, and Mr. ElBaradei, Oil for Food Kofi, the French, the Germans, the Democratic Party and all the talking heads will say that the US is making impossible demands and that it should respect the “will to peace” of the international community.

The US, joined possibly by the usual suspects, Britain, Israel and Australia, will persist, and say the Iranian maybe is not enough. Things will start blowing up all over the world, as the Iranian secret police turns loose the terrorists; the Americans will begin an achingly slow military build-up, while the Iranians talk about 20 new ways to wipe out Israel; finish their bomb, lock up or kill their dissidents; and, get their military ready. (Just how many dead Americans is the diplo-game worth ?)

Then…at the eleventh hour, Mr. Putin will weigh-in with yet another deal, which the talking heads will sagely tell us, is designed to avert a terrible war. The smarter ones will tell us that the last-minute deal is to ensure that nothing whatever happens to the Iranians and their bomb - only the really smart ones will figure out that the whole thing is just a charade to put the onus for war on the Americans. The “deal” will be nothing but a re-hashed version of the “drop dead infidels” arrangement.

So, the Americans will be left to carry on alone, or virtually so, but only after giving the Great and the Good time to mobilize world public opinion in favor of letting the Mullahs have their bomb; or rather, in favor of taking the Americans down a peg. The overclass driving this process, in Europe, and in the United States, is much more concerned with bringing the United States to heel, and ensuring its compliance with the transnational project, than it is about some smelly mullahs in a far away country getting a bomb.

All of the diplomatic games are nonsense, of course. The question before the House is: will we fight to stop the Iranians having their bomb, or not ? If we do so, it will be alone.


Kobayashi Maru said...

Don't be so sure we'll be alone. I have gone on record as speculating that France could get involved (as odd as that may sound). And though we might choose to discourage it, the Israelis are loaded for bear. It's also not completely impplausible that we might get indirect support from various Arab neighbors - though you won't necessarily see it in the headlines. Their reasons are entirely different from ours, but they have little interest in seeing Iran get the bomb. I totally agree that the UN, IAEA, etc are morally bankrupt. They will neither act nor condone acting. What they fail to understand is that to have any effect, words must be backed up by the credible threat of force. For that threat to be credible, it occasionally must be used and used decisively. Which is all a roundabout way of saying that I agree with you but would not be surprised if we got some help once momentum gets rolling.

Dagger said...

The Farse is war! You people that talk so casually about it as if it's nothing, disgust me. The theory of pre-emptive war was shown to be a total disgrace yet, people want to pretend that it was just and good and hey, let's do another one, that was fun! Sad, sad, sad. The US has shown itself to be completely hipocritical. Here we go again, we can have nukes and bio weapon programs but the 'bad guys' can't. At least there would be some validity to the US ranting and raving if it was following it's promisses made in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the ban on chemical weapons and on and on. Oh, but blame the UN, there the bad guy. Whatever.

KG said...

"The theory of pre-emptive war was shown to be a total disgrace..."
Grow up dagger. The *theory* can only be that--a theory.
Assuming you actually mean that pre-emptive war itself is a "disgrace" then please enlighten me--(us?).
Which wars? When?
And if you really believe that then I assume you'd also object to a cop shooting someone who was driving a truck at high speed towards a crowd of innocent people? In which case your solution would be...what?
You're a moron.